The Sunday slate brings us a large number of games with a ton of viable options for both hitters and pitchers. Time to knuckle down and find the winning plays for the day. My advice, as usual, grab a safe arm, load up on big bats, and fill with the connectors.
This is the Plan of Attack. We’re here to provide advice and recommendations to help you build successful daily fantasy lineups. We’ll be loosely guided by the tenants of our DFS Manifesto – namely, a single lineup build designed to improve your enjoyment of the game while giving you a chance to beat the rake.
1. Weather and Park Factors
After a few days of keeping an eye on the weather, we get a break. There is no cause for concern when it comes to rainouts. As always, monitor this closer to lock time.
There is no shortage of terrific hitter-friendly parks on the slate. Rather than highlight just one, I want to list off the matchups to look at when deciding.
KAN@CHW – LCF, CF, RFC, RF
PIT@MIL – LCF, CF, RFC, RF
BAL@TOR(Sahlen Field) – LF, LFC
SDP@COL – LF, CF, RCF, RF
Check out our park factors HERE.
2. Building Block Bats
Stack 1 (Washington Nationals @ BOS):
Juan Soto ($5700 DK, $4800 FD)
Trea Turner ($5400 DK, $3900 FD)
Asdrubal Cabrera ($4500 DK, $2800 FD)
That’s right, going back to the Nationals stack. They have been a hot team against right-handed. In the last seven days, the Nats are 22% better than other teams in the MLB and have a .356 wOBA. Soto, Turner, and Cabrera are a significant part of that success. They face off against Zack Godley, who has been destroyed in his first five starts. On the year, Godley has a 7.29 ERA, 1.95 WHIP, and 8.6% K-BB rate. Even after the Nationals get to Godley, the bullpen for Detroit is terrible. They have a 4.46 FIP and have given up the sixth-most home runs in the majors.
Stack 2 (Minnesota Twins @ DET):
Nelson Cruz ($5900 DK, $4100 FD)
Max Kepler ($4500 DK, $3300 FD)
Jorge Polanco ($4600 DK, $2700 FD)
Minnesota has gone slightly cold against right-hand pitching in the last few weeks after a massive offensive outburst to start the season. The bats are left-hand heavy at the top of the lineup, and Nelson Cruz is always a threat to put one out. They will look to right the ship in Comerica today.
The Twins face off against future ace, Casey Mize. Someday soon, he will be considered one of the better starting pitchers in the MLB, but not today. He is basically in the majors to get innings against top-tier talent and build up his innings for the future. Take a look at his pitches below, Mize is all over the map right now.
Also consider: New York Yankees vs. NYM, Chicago White Sox vs. KC, Milwaukee vs. PIT
Kenta Maeda @ DET (DK $9600, FD $9700)
Maeda is the top-priced arm on the slate today. Which makes total sense, he is 4-0 with a 2.21 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and 40 strikeouts in 36.2 innings pitched. His control has been pinpoint, as he has only allowed seven walks on the year. The floor is not lava with Maeda, its incredibly safe. He draws the Detroit Tigers this afternoon, and while the Tigers have been hot lately, Maeda has the stuff to cool them down. Besides, Detroit has an 88 wRC+ and .247 wOBA against RHP on the season.
Aaron Civale @ STL (DK $9400, FD $9600)
The second most expensive arm on the slate is Aaron Civale, who is also incredibly safe. Civale has thrown 95 or more pitches in every start this season, and six innings pitched or more. The control for Civale has been excellent as well, he a 22.8 K-BB% and has not allowed more than one walk in a start. Batters do not make quality contact against Civale either, he has a .281 wOBA and 34.2% hard-hit rate. His opponents, the Cardinals, have a .138 ISO and .770 OPS vs. RHP but do walk 13.4% of the time. If he keeps the bases clean like he usually does, it will be a productive day on the bump for Civale.
Also Consider: Brandon Woodruff vs. PIT, Luis Castillo vs. CHC
Adam Wainwright vs. CLE (DK $8300, FD $7900)
On the flipside to Civale is Wainwright, who is having a resurgence this year. In 25 innings pitched, he has a 2.88 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Tremendous numbers, but he does not strike out a lot of batters, only 16 strikeouts. Cleveland has not been as expected at the plate with a 94 wRC+ and .319 wOBA vs. RHP. They are riding a heater at the moment and could give Wainwright some issues. In the last seven days, the Indians have a 145 wRC+/.391 wOBA and .919 OPS. Wainwright needs to keep the basepaths clean and limit the walks to go deep in this game.
Tony Gonsolin @ TEX (DK $8400, FD $7700)
It’s a minimal sample size, but Gonsolin is untouched so far. In 14.2 innings pitched, he has 12 strikeouts and a 0.57 WHIP. So why is his price so low? He continues to fluctuate between starting and not so he is not entirely stretched out. This is keeping him from going deep into the games. So far, he has only managed to get past the fifth innings one time. So why is he such a value? The Texas Rangers are riddled with injuries and been a putrid offense all season. Against RHP, they have a 61 wRC+ and .275 wOBA with a 22.5% strikeout rate. The big boppers haven’t shown up against RHP either, as they have a .128 ISO and .559 OPS.
Also Consider: Kyle Gibson vs. LAD
Connectors are cheap guys who offer a substantial upside and enable you to explore top-heavy builds.
Luis Urias vs. PIT ($3000 DK, $2300 FD)
Urias was the leadoff hitter on Friday, and today is a favorable matchup against LHP Steven Brault. He has reached base safely five times in the last two games and could put up a substantial point total today. Milwaukee has been sputtering all year and needs a boost atop the lineup.
Pat Valaika @ TOR (N/A DK, $2300 FD)
Valaika has shown off the ability to take one deep when called upon. He has five home runs on the season in limited plate appearances. Valaika does have a .442 xwOBACON, and .292 xBA. After a conversation with our Park Factors guru, Crosby Spencer, he revealed that LF and LFC may be a hitters haven in Sahlen Field. This is a FanDuel play only.
Also Consider: Ryan Mountcastle @ TOR, Eric Thames @ BOS, Jason Kipnis @ CIN