The Saturday slate is nine-games that got even smaller with the recent postponement news. After wiping away Dinelson Lamet and Kevin Gausman, were left with a lot of suspect pitching. The lineup construction should focus on selecting matchup-based arms, rostering immense talent in the Rocky region, and filling the gaps with connecting pieces that can explode. Good Luck!

This is the Plan of Attack. We’re here to provide advice and recommendations to help you build successful daily fantasy lineups. We’ll be loosely guided by the tenants of our DFS Manifesto – namely, a single lineup build designed to improve your enjoyment of the game while giving you a chance to beat the rake.

For clarity, when I reference “value,” I’m referring to projected points divided by cost.

 

1. The RotoFanatical Challenge

We are hosting a daily 20-entry, $3 contest on DraftKings. It’s an excellent low-cost testing ground against fellow RotoFanatic fans. A level playing field is always lovely. Today’s 9-game slate begins at 6:05 pm ET. Reserve your spot for the contest.

 

2. Weather and Park Factors

Rain is playing a significant factor in crafting a winning lineup. CLE@MIN will be a problem as the chances of rain are at 40% with overcast clouds all afternoon. DET@CWS is also showing a significant likelihood of rain at 24%. Notable pitchers that would be affected: Zach Plesac and Rich Hill.

Take a moment to glance down at the Park Factor rank of Coors Field. Across the board, its the leader in nearly every offensive category. What does this tell us? You need to target Coors Field whenever a game is played. The game last night was capped off by a Charlie Blackmon grand slam and featured a bevy of terrific hitter to select.

Check out our park factors HERE.

 

3. Building Block Bats

Elite values:

Mike Trout @ COL ($6000 DK, $5000 FD)
Anthony Rendon @ COL ($5400 DK, $4500 FD)

As mentioned in the Park Factors section, Coors Fied is the number one place for nearly every offensive category. So naturally, the target should be to grab hitters from there. Today’s selection is the two MVP-caliber talents of Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. It seems trivial to spout off impressive stats, so we will keep it short and sweet here. These are two dynamic bats that you want to get into the lineup, especially since pitching is very weak on the slate.

The matchup is against Kyle Freeland, who on paper looks like a decent pitcher. He has a 3.60 ERA comes with a 4.35 FIP and 4.16 xFIP, so maybe a little lucky. The significant factor, again, is Coors Field. Freeland is a much better pitcher on the road than at home.

  • Home Stats – 5 Games, 26.0 IP, 13 Earned Runs, 12:5 K/BB, 1.58 WHIP
  • Away Stats – 4 Games, 24.0 IP, 7 Earned Runs, 22:9 K/BB, 1.13 WHIP

 

Also consider: Dylan Moore, Jose Abreu

 

Unlikely heroes:

Jeimer Candelario @ CWS ($3900 DK, $3000 FD)
Jonathan Schoop @ CWS ($4300 DK, $3000 FD)

It’s a mini-stack as these Unlikely Heroes look to take advantage of the return of Reynaldo Lopez. Its been a rough go this year as the command has been all over the place, and the strikeouts haven’t taken the next step. Lopez has a 3.9% K-BB rate(throw up emoji) with an 8.38 ERA. The ERA is slightly inflated, as shown by the 7.95 FIP and 6.54 xFIP, but those numbers are equally putrid.

Detroit has been a haven for values on the DFS season. Candelario is having a terrific under-the-radar season, as shown by his .327 batting average with seven HRs and 54 runs+RBI. The numbers are all backed up by the underlying metrics as well.

  • 81st percentile in xBA
  • 73rd percentile in Barrel%
  • 72nd percentile in xwOBA
  • 80th percentile in Hard Hit%

Schoop is similar to Candelario in regard to the productive season. He boasts a .283 batting average with eight HRs and 49 runs+RBI and a .814 OPS. His success does not have as many sexy underlying numbers but has been very successful against RHP this year. When facing a right-handed pitcher, Schoop is 25% better than league-average and has a .205 ISO.

Adalberto Mondesi vs. PIT ($2800 DK, $3000 FD)

Throw away Mondesi’s year-long stats; he has been a different player since the calendar flipped to September. Could it be health-related, or is he finally breaking out? I am not 100% sure either, but maybe Dave Funnell will feature him in his next weeks “We’re Going Streaking” articles. Never the less, The production has been off the charts and, at his price, needs to be rostered. In September, he is sporting a .286/.359/.571 slash with a .930 OPS. The struggle for Mondesi has always been the lack of plate discipline, but he has a 3:1 K/BB rate in September. Baby steps.

Also consider: David Dahl, Ke’Bryan Hayes,

 

4. Pitchers

“Safe” Picks: 

Zac Gallen vs. SEA (DK $10000, FD $10800)

Without a doubt, Gallen is the top-talent on the slate today-though he is not priced that far ahead of many others. This reason is going to make his roster percentage too high or chalky. How safe is safe? Well, let’s consider that Gallen’s last game out was the first time giving up more than three earned runs in a start since his arrival in 2019. There is plenty of significant factors to make Gallen the top pitcher. He has a 20.0% K-BB rate and is getting batters to hit ground balls 45.9% of the time. His 3.46 FIP and 3.64 xFIP suggest that his 2.29 ERA has been a little lucky, but those numbers are still elite for the slate. His matchup against Seattle is a solid one as well. Against RHP, they are a very average offense that strikes out 22% of the time and has a 103 wRC+.

Also Consider: Kyle Hendricks

 

Value Targets: 

Zach Plesac @ MIN (DK $8000, FD $10200)

Plesac is a steal on DraftKings today and should be played there. Like Gallen, Plesac is more than capable of putting up elite-level production as well. Plesac almost found his way into the SAFE section as well, if not for the $2K savings on DraftKings. Why the difference in pricing between sites? FanDuel gives more points for pitchers that win the game, and Plesac has a great chance of that today. He has won his previous three games and left each game with a quality start. Plesac has an insanely low walk rate at only 1.6%, with a 27.0% strikeout rate. Keeping runners off the basepaths is a massive reason he sports a 1.32 ERA with a 2.90 FIP. Keep an eye on that Midwest weather; otherwise, Plesac is quite an excellent DK value.

 

Justus Sheffield @ ARI (DK $7700, FD $8600)

Let’s start with the matchup for Sheffield. He squares off against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are a last-place team sputtering to the finish line. Against LHP, they are 39% worse than league-average and carry a .217/.280/.325 slash line on the season. A .266 wOBA and .108 ISO suggests they are not hitting the ball well either, and Sheffield won’t have to worry about giving up any long balls today.

In 37.1 innings pitched on the season, Sheffield has a 4.34 ERA, which is a little unlucky, as shown by his 3.14 FIP and 4.12 xFIP. Something to keep an eye on is the number of ground balls that Sheffield induces. He has a 48.2% ground ball rate, which is one of the better rates on the slate today. Justus has a 13.8% K-BB rate that would look better if he can keep the walks under control. He is a vice value today that will get a lot of play.

Also Consider: Daniel Hudson, Tejay Antone

 

5. Connectors

Connectors are cheap guys who offer a tangible upside and enable you to explore top-heavy builds. FanDuel offers an embarrassing quantity of these players (their pricing model is drunk), so I’ll focus on DraftKings first and foremost.

 

Edward Olivares vs. PIT ($2300 DK, $2300 FD)

Olivares has been a welcome addition to the Royals. He is slashing .343/.343/.600 with a .943 OPS in his last 35 at-bats. Yeah, he is not a fan of the walk like Mondesi, either. He has 12 hits with two home runs and four total extra-base hits in his last eight games. Sneaky value play again today!

Also Consider: Jordan Luplow, Jo Adell