Today’s action has a 14-game spread. There may be a lot of pitchers taking the mound today, but only a few worth spending your cash on. There are lots of ways to construct a lineup, so consider all options below. Good luck!
This is Plan of Attack. We’re here to provide advice and recommendations to help you build successful daily fantasy lineups. We’ll be loosely guided by the tenants of our DFS Manifesto – namely a single lineup build designed to improve your enjoyment of the game while giving you a chance to beat the rake.
Don’t be surprised if the column evolves. This is a living creature, and it’s sure to adapt in Darwinian fashion. If there are features you especially like or believe need tweaking to be actionable, please reach out to us. Since this is written early in the day, certain important details will be left for you to find on your own. In particular, weather, lineups, and umpires are all things you should verify within three hours of contest-lock.
For clarity, when I reference “value,” I’m referring to projected points divided by cost.
1. The RotoFanatical Challenge
We are hosting a daily 20-entry, $3 contest on DraftKings. It’s an excellent low-cost testing ground against fellow RotoFanatic fans. A level playing field is always nice. Today’s 14-game slate begins at 6:37 pm ET. Reserve your spot for the contest.
2. Weather and Park Factors
The skies are looking perfect for baseball today with no real chance of rain to hold up any games. Three of the 14 games on today’s slate will be played indoors: MIN@MIL, SEA@TEX, and SF@HOU.
For today’s Park Factors insights, let’s focus on Miller Park. The Brewers have not been swinging hot bats as of late, so the attention will turn to the opposition, the Minnesota Twins. From the graphic below, we can see that Miller Park is an above-average stadium for home runs. Scoring over is neutral due to the shorter dimensions. Let’s turn our attention there for building a lineup.
3. Building Block Bats
Max Kepler ($4800 DK, $3700 FD)
Eddie Rosario ($4500 DK, $3000 FD)
The pair of outfielders for Minnesota draw right-handed pitcher Josh Lindblom. Lindblom is having a very rough go in 2020 as left-hand hitters have put up a .350 OBP, .471 SLG, and .356 wOBA against him. This game has the makings of a massive blowout in favor of the Twins, and a stack with these two will be bountiful.
Kepler is riding a three-game hit streak with two double-digit point totals. The reason I love Kepler as an elite value is his ability to fill the stat sheet up all around. In 62 at-bats, he has put up 11 Runs, 12 RBI, and five HRs with a stolen base as well. In fact, he has only put up seven games until nine points while leading off for 15 of them. There is significant upside with a solid floor.
Rosario’s start has not gone according to plan. He has been striking out a ton, and the .211 batting average is well below his career line. However, Rosario went deep last night, and I am hoping that wakes Rosario up. Even in his early slump, he is putting up numbers(11 Runs/4 HR/ 13 RBI). Remember, he has the Park Factors going his way, along with a favorable pitching matchup.
Kyle Schwarber ($4800 DK, $2700 FD)
Schwarber is always a must-play when going up against RHP, and in this case, it helps when the opposing pitcher is Adam Plutko. I’m not saying Plutko is a horribly lousy pitcher, it’s more that he wasn’t expecting to make this start. Thanks to the bonehead maneuver of Plesac and Clevinger, he is. Schwarber has an 88th percentile Hard Hit% and the 72nd percentile in Barrel%. He has a few struggles early on but will correct that, hopefully against Plutko. In 2019 he mashed RHP by putting up a .552 SLG and .900 OPS.
Also consider: Jose Ramirez, Anthony Rizzo, Daniel Murphy.
Jose Martinez ($4000 DK, $2900 FD)
Martinez has been on a hot streak with double-digit points in his last few games. He platoons for the Rays as a 1B/OF against left-hand pitchers, like Martin Perez. Perez has faired well against RHH in 2020, but last year struggled mightily. In 128 IP, he gave up 22 HRs with a 5.46 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Perez is about to come back to Earth for this start. Put those numbers up against Martinez’s .836 OPS and 78th percentile in Barrel%, you’ve got a recipe for a big DFS point total.
Kyle Lewis ($4000 DK, $3100 FD)
Lewis has massive power in his swing and is showing it off early in 2020. His 11.1 Barrel% and 71st percentile in wxOBA prove his 4 HR and 1.007 OPS is no joke. Lewis had another big night yesterday with three hits, including one home run. His opponent is Mike Minor, who is pitching this year with decreased velocity. This loss of mph on his pitches is causing him to get hit all over the yard. Minor has a putrid 6.89 ERA, and 1.40 WHIP in 15.2 innings pitched.
Also consider: Christian Walker, Chris Owings, Anthony Santander.
Dylan Bundy (DK $9700, FD $9700)
Dylan Bundy is starting to write his name down as the early Cy Young candidate. He has been masterful early on with his 2.08 ERA, and 25 strikeouts in 21.2 innings pitched. Bundy has a QS in all three of his starts this year, including his last time out being a 9 innings complete game. His point totals in those three games: 64, 37, and 49 points. He squares off against Oakland, who has been striking out 26% of the time as a team. Dylan Bundy, safe play? It must be 2020.
Bundy was the featured pitcher of Paul Mammino’s Pitch Location Report today. I would suggest taking a look at the analysis there as well.
Max Scherzer (DK $10800, FD $10700)
If you played Max Scherzer for his last start, you’re probably really upset. $10K, and he left the game after the first innings. My condolences on your loss, but rest assured, Scherzer is back today with reports of good health. In his previous two starts, you got typical points scores from Scherzer: 56 and 37 points. He draws the New York Mets, who on paper have a 107 wRC+ against RHP, but a .101 ISO. This means they aren’t putting many balls over the fences, but instead putting hits together. Scherzer needs to get the pesky walks in check and let the strikeouts do the talking instead.
Also Consider: Zack Wheeler.
Touki Toussaint (DK $8100, FD $7400)
Touki made me a believer with his last start out, as he struck out nine batters in 6.2 innings pitched vs. the Blue Jays. His curveball has looked electric and is only giving up a .211 xBA, and the split-finger fastball puts away batters at a 42.9% clip. The matchup against the Yankees makes you want to turn your head a little, but the slate is full of subpar pitchers. There are a bit of K% issues in NY, so Touki has a great chance to rack up the strikeouts before he gets the hook.
Also Consider: Garrett Richards, Ross Stripling.
Connectors are cheap guys who offer a tangible upside and enable you to explore top-heavy builds.
Mike Brosseau ($3300 DK, $2300 FD)
Brosseau is a rare commodity for DFS play. He can be plugged in at 2B and mashed left-hand pitchers. Brosseau has his way with LHP to the tune of a .353 batting average and 227 wRC+. He draws a matchup with the ever-ready to give up the long ball pitcher named Martin Perez. The game is played in Boston, and I’d expect Brosseau will make use of the Green Monster in LF.
Jordan Luplow ($3000 DK, $2100 FD)
Luplow was one of my favorite plays in DFS last season. The casual player has no clue who he is, and typically he goes under-owned. Luplow demolishes southpaws, and can’t hit his way out of a paper bag against righties. Today’s matchup puts him against Jon Lester, whos skills have eroded quickly. Luplow has not had many opportunities to shine yet, but in 2019 he hit 14 of his 15 HRs against LHP. PLAY THIS MAN!
Also Consider: Tommy La Stella, Mike Tauchman, Dominic Smith(contrarian play).