Sunday action continues the trend of the wacky weekend. Both sites have a seven-game slate but will feature different games, making it a little more site dependant when building your lineup.
This is Plan of Attack. We’re here to provide advice and recommendations to help you build successful daily fantasy lineups. We’ll be loosely guided by the tenants of our DFS Manifesto – namely, a single lineup build designed to improve your enjoyment of the game while giving you a chance to beat the rake.
Don’t be surprised if the column evolves. This is a living creature, and it’s sure to adapt in Darwinian fashion. If there are features you especially like or believe need tweaking to be actionable, please reach out to us. Since this is written early in the day, specific essential details will be left for you to find on your own. In particular, weather, lineups, and umpires are all things you should verify within three hours of contest-lock.
For clarity, when I reference “value,” I’m referring to projected points divided by cost.
1. The RotoFanatical Challenge
We are hosting a daily 20-entry, $3 contest on DraftKings. It’s an excellent low-cost testing ground against fellow RotoFanatic fans. A level playing field is always lovely. Today’s 7-game slate begins at 12:05pm ET. Reserve your spot for the contest.
2. Weather and Park Factors
The weather won’t play a factor in today’s outcomes. The forecast shows clear and cloudy games all afternoon. As always, monitor your lineups before lock time.
Much like yesterday’s Plan of Attack, the matchups don’t put many batters into hitter-friendly stadiums. Outside of BOS@BAL, all the games are played in pitcher-friendly parks that could suppress scoring a bit today. Continue to look at pitchers with high strikeout rates that won’t get blown up by the longball and hitters with high contact rates.
Check out our park factors HERE.
3. Building Block Bats
Vlad Guerrero Jr ($3900 DK, $2800 FD)
Teoscar Hernandez ($3900 DK, $3200 FD)
Vlad is hitting the ball hard right now, and his batting average continues to climb. His hard hit% on the season is 40.4%, with a 91.4 exit velocity of batted balls. Vlad is riding a five-game hit streak and walking more at that time as well. All good signs that are pointing up as we await the power explosion when he raises the launch angle. Guerrero is pretty inexpensive compared to other first basemen on the slate and has the potential for a huge day.
Teoscar Hernandez is having a solid campaign in 2020. He is batting .289 with nine home runs and 17 RBI on the season. In his last four games, he has scored four runs and collected five hits with two home runs. Vlad and Teoscar will square off against the Tampa Bay Rays, that are looking to make it a bullpen game. The Rays bullpen is riddled with injuries; over the last seven days, they are walking more than 10% of batters with a 4.06 FIP.
Brandon Lowe ($5400 DK, $4100 FD)
Starting Brandon Lowe against any right-handed pitcher has proven to be a winning formula. On the year, Lowe carries a .313 batting average with nine home runs and 24 RBI in 27 games played. Against just right-handed pitchers, he is hitting .290 with five home runs and 19 RBI. His matchup puts him against Trent Thornton, who has struggled with command and keeping the ball in the yard in only 4.2 innings pitched.
Also consider: Francisco Lindor, Christian Yelich, Nelson Cruz, Jose Abreu
Bryan Reynolds ($3500 DK, $2400 FD)
On the year Reynolds is batting .218 with only two home runs and six RBI with a .704 OPS. Very underwhelming, but in the last two games has five base hits with three runs and 5 RBI. He is a high contact batter that puts a ton of balls in play, that could work out nicely against Corbin Burnes. Burnes struggles with command at times and tends to walk batters, nearly three per game started. This could be a very sneaky play that produces well in a GPP.
Jordan Luplow ($3400 DK, $2300 FD)
It’s a tall task asking someone to put an outfield with a sub .100 batting average, making Luplow a perfect candidate for the Unlikely Heroes category. Keep in mind that he is a right-hand hitting platoon bat, so he won’t get a considerable amount of opportunities. In 128 at-bats vs. LHP last year, Jordan put up a .320 batting average with 198 wRC+ and .422 ISO. It’s only a matter of time until he breaks out. He faces southpaw Tarik Skubal this afternoon, will today be the day?
Also consider: Hunter Dozier, Randal Grichuk, Colin Moran
Carlos Carrasco (DK $10500, FD $9300)
Carrasco has been terrific on the season. He has a 3.71 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP while striking out 35 batters in only 26.2 innings pitched. His slider has been super efficient this year with a .133 BA against and striking out 21 batters already. He draws a favorable matchup against the Tigers today. Detroit is struggling mightily as of late. In the last seven days, they have a 60 wRC+ and .263 OBP. They are also near the top of the league, with a 28% strikeout rate. It should be a significant total day for Carrasco.
Dylan Bundy (DK N/A, FD $9100)
Bundy’s last time out didn’t go according to plan, but he has been spectacular in the year. He has 38 strikeouts in only 32.2 innings pitched with a 2.48 ERA and sub 1.00 WHIP. Outside of his last game started, Bundy put up 37 or more points in every game and went past six innings pitched. His opposition today is the Oakland Athletics, which have cooled as of late. Dylan should be able to continue racking up the strikeouts as the Athletics have a 28% strikeout rate over the last seven days.
Also Consider: Yu Darvish
Corbin Burnes (DK $7400, FD $7300)
Burnes continues to strikeout batters at a high rate. He has 29 strikeouts in only 21 innings pitched and a 1.14 WHIP. Burnes has been ramping up his pitch total to go deeper into games. In his previous start, he got up to 83 pitches and went five strong innings. The matchup today is against the Pittsburg Pirates, who continue to struggle to put up consistent run totals. In the last seven days, they have 57 wRC+ and .250 wOBA while striking out 25.6%. Put those totals along with the 4.0% walk rate, and it looks like a great day to save salary and play Burnes.
Dylan Cease (DK $9300, FD $8400)
Cease has been a solid DFS play through his last four starts. Take away the Opening Day disaster, and he has not lost a game yet. On the year, Cease is 4-1 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with 17 strikeouts. He gets his a little harder than most like, and it’s partly due to his fastball command comes and goes. The excellent news is Dylan continues to go 5-plus innings into games and racks up the DFS points through efficiency. He faces the Chicago Cubs, who have the league-worst 35.3% strikeout rate against RHP.
Also Consider: Daniel Ponce de Leon, Tyler Mahle
Connectors are cheap guys who offer a tangible upside and enable you to explore top-heavy builds. FanDuel offers an embarrassing quantity of these players (their pricing model is drunk), so I’ll focus on DraftKings first and foremost.
David Bote ($3200 DK, $2500 FD)
Exit Kris Bryant and enter David Bote playing time. Bote has been a utility role for the Cubs over the past year but has shown glimpses of promise. In 21 games played, not started, he has three home runs, 13 RBI, and 7 runs scored. The Cubs are showing confidence in Bote by batting him sixth in the lineup on most days. It won’t take much for Bote to return value at his price.
Mike Zunino ($2800 DK, $2200 FD)
Looking to punt a position today? The catcher position may be the perfect one in a small slate with not a lot of top-end offerings. Zunino is a boom or bust play, the batting average will always look scary. He has put two balls into the bleachers in his last three games and scored double-digit points. The matchup against Trent Thornton should help him out, and if he connects with another longball, its a big win.
Also Consider: Dylan Carlson, Ryan Mountcastle, Nomar Mazara