I just released my initial hitter projections and now it’s time for the pitchers. The discussion begins and ends with the effect of the NL DH. Again, the reason I start with projections is that they save me a ton of time. I don’t need to take into account differences in home ballparks, the strength of competition, playing time, the player’s baseline talent, and other stuff I haven’t thought of. On top of those changes, I add in my own adjustments to get a final valuation.

With this set of projections, I run them through the league’s Standing Gain Points from The Process to get each player’s contribution. These are the valuations I start with and just investigate what seems off.

 

Overall trends

 

  • The shift to the DH in the NL is huge for NL pitcher values. This is the biggest valuation change in the shortened season and it’s not even close. It’s going to be tough for some people to believe that the projections for Eduardo Rodriguez and Lance Lynn are better than those of Chris Paddack and Yu Darvish. It’s so tough to spot other trends with the DH dominating any other ones.
  • I liked the changes Davish and Giolito made last season and created my own projections for them. While it’s still easy to do so with Giolito, it’s so much tougher for Darvish.
  • Closers may have more value with a larger percentage of innings because starters will not be throwing as long.

Here are the rankings and it’s going to take a few days for all the changes to seep in. If they ever do.

 

Rank. Name (Wins, ERA, Ks, WHIP, Saves, ADP)

 

1. Gerrit Cole (6, 3.06, 105, 1.01, 0, 6.3 ADP)
2. Max Scherzer (6, 2.96, 91, 1.04, 0, 17.1 ADP)
3. Jacob deGrom (6, 3.08, 90, 1.07, 0, 8.5 ADP)
4. Justin Verlander (6, 3.23, 85, 0.97, 0, 20.6 ADP)
5. Shane Bieber (6, 3.65, 82, 1.11, 0, 27.3 ADP)
6. Mike Clevinger (5, 3.38, 84, 1.16, 0, 30.3 ADP)
7. Walker Buehler (5, 3.59, 79, 1.13, 0, 15.5 ADP)
8. Charlie Morton (5, 3.62, 79, 1.17, 0, 60.7 ADP)

Just compare the two projections and it seems to be a coin flip but they had a 45 spot difference in ADP.

9. Blake Snell (5, 3.32, 77, 1.16, 0, 52.7 ADP)
10. Zack Greinke (6, 3.59, 68, 1.17, 0, 67.2 ADP)
11. Josh Hader (2, 3.12, 44, 0.92, 11, 56.9 ADP)
12. Clayton Kershaw (5, 3.66, 69, 1.13, 0, 44.6 ADP)

Another comparison between Greinke and Kershaw.

13. Jack Flaherty (5, 3.74, 79, 1.16, 0, 22.8 ADP)
14. Stephen Strasburg (5, 3.77, 78, 1.2, 0, 29.6 ADP)
15. Liam Hendriks (2, 2.82, 35, 1.06, 13, 106.5 ADP)
16. Aroldis Chapman (1, 2.66, 31, 1.09, 14, 87.5 ADP)
17. Lucas Giolito (5, 3.98, 82, 1.2, 0, 52.4 ADP)

I plan on moving Giolito up quite a bit. The projections don’t know about the gains he made last season.

18. Kirby Yates (1, 2.93, 33, 1.02, 13, 76.4 ADP)
19. Roberto Osuna (1, 3.13, 29, 1.02, 13, 93 ADP)
20. Kenley Jansen (1, 3.72, 28, 1.04, 14, 114.4 ADP)

I’m a little suspect of the high closer rankings. I wonder if they are expected to throw more or are starters likely to throw fewer innings. Most likely the second.

21. Aaron Nola (5, 4.01, 79, 1.25, 0, 64.5 ADP)
22. Patrick Corbin (5, 4.13, 78, 1.27, 0, 48.5 ADP)

My steady ace has fallen hard.

23. Trevor Bauer (4, 3.86, 85, 1.3, 0, 84.3 ADP)
24. James Paxton (5, 3.87, 68, 1.18, 0, 124 ADP)
25. Carlos Carrasco (4, 3.88, 70, 1.18, 0, 144.6 ADP)
26. Brad Hand (1, 3.45, 30, 1.13, 13, 127.5 ADP)
27. Hyun-Jin Ryu (4, 3.42, 60, 1.2, 0, 147.8 ADP)

He’s up and then down and now back up.

28. Ken Giles (1, 3.2, 31, 1.07, 12, 137 ADP)
29. Jose Berrios (5, 4.19, 71, 1.23, 0, 82.6 ADP)
30. Taylor Rogers (1, 3.2, 25, 1.09, 13, 119.4 ADP)
31. Tyler Glasnow (4, 3.88, 68, 1.17, 0, 70.3 ADP)
32. Edwin Diaz (1, 3.45, 37, 1.06, 11, 131.8 ADP)
33. Eduardo Rodriguez (5, 4.09, 75, 1.3, 0, 133.4 ADP)

This ranking will give me nightmares and I’m sure readers will let me know about it.

34. Lance Lynn (5, 4.29, 77, 1.28, 0, 116.9 ADP)
35. Yu Darvish (4, 4.2, 77, 1.21, 0, 60.2 ADP)

I targetted Darvish just about everywhere since I believed in his second half. I wonder if I’ll move him up enough to draft him.

36. Chris Paddack (4, 4.16, 64, 1.11, 0, 56.6 ADP)
37. Nick Anderson (1, 3.33, 33, 1.04, 11, 154.9 ADP)
38. Luis Castillo (4, 3.98, 75, 1.27, 0, 43.9 ADP)

I’m done being in awe how far some pitchers have fallen.

39. Brandon Woodruff (5, 4.14, 72, 1.26, 0, 87.8 ADP)
40. Mike Minor (5, 4.01, 70, 1.27, 0, 172.5 ADP)
41. Jose Leclerc (1, 3.72, 32, 1.28, 12, 188.6 ADP)
42. Brandon Workman (1, 3.64, 27, 1.26, 13, 165.4 ADP)
43. Corey Kluber (4, 3.98, 64, 1.2, 0, 104.8 ADP)
44. Raisel Iglesias (1, 3.91, 28, 1.22, 12, 154.3 ADP)
45. Hector Neris (1, 3.91, 31, 1.17, 11, 137.6 ADP)
46. Craig Kimbrel (1, 4.09, 31, 1.23, 12, 163.4 ADP)
47. Alex Colome (1, 3.80, 24, 1.29, 13, 172.5 ADP)
48. Kenta Maeda (4, 4.02, 63, 1.25, 0, 165.6 ADP)
49. Keone Kela (1, 3.68, 26, 1.2, 11, 220.1 ADP)
50. Andrew Heaney (4, 4.21, 60, 1.2, 0, 198.2 ADP)
51. Frankie Montas (4, 3.95, 59, 1.24, 0, 101.2 ADP)
52. Archie Bradley (1, 4.11, 23, 1.33, 13, 183.5 ADP)
53. Matthew Boyd (4, 4.60, 74, 1.22, 0, 156.1 ADP)
54. Masahiro Tanaka (4, 4.07, 60, 1.25, 0, 206.8 ADP)
55. Shohei Ohtani (3, 3.60, 56, 1.17, 0, 105.7 ADP)

It’s one start a week and I’m guessing Sunday so he can get more starts and have some Monday off days to rest him.

56. Mike Soroka (5, 4.09, 57, 1.27, 0, 112.8 ADP)
57. Dylan Bundy (4, 4.53, 68, 1.24, 0, 215.2 ADP)
58. Sonny Gray (4, 4.06, 65, 1.31, 0, 101.2 ADP)
59. Max Fried (4, 3.98, 65, 1.33, 0, 138.1 ADP)

Two of my previous sleepers are Bundy and Fried, but it’s interesting to see Bundy get bumped above. Soroka takes a hit from having a limited arsenal.

60. Jesus Luzardo (4, 4.19, 58, 1.23, 0, 90.4 ADP)
61. Hansel Robles (1, 3.64, 25, 1.19, 10, 180.5 ADP)

My sleeper closer is still hiding down here.

62. Zack Wheeler (4, 4.44, 67, 1.27, 0, 123.3 ADP)
63. Giovanny Gallegos (1, 3.52, 27, 1.11, 9, 200.4 ADP)
64. Joe Jimenez (1, 4.11, 28, 1.24, 11, 228.9 ADP)
65. David Price (4, 4.09, 55, 1.25, 0, 141 ADP)
66. A.J. Puk (4, 4.00, 62, 1.31, 0, 234.4 ADP)

Make sure Puk’s role is known before drafting him this high.

67. Will Smith (1, 3.2, 29, 1.07, 7, 204 ADP)
68. German Marquez (4, 4.63, 70, 1.29, 0, 176.4 ADP)
69. Jose Urquidy (4, 4.29, 53, 1.21, 0, 203.9 ADP)
70. Lance McCullers Jr. (4, 3.95, 55, 1.27, 0, 174.9 ADP)

Interesting Astros pairing. Both might end up in a piggyback situation. I could see McCuller’s cost jump quite a bit once people remember he’s alive. There is a lot to like if he can throw the innings.

71. Robbie Ray (4, 4.46, 74, 1.36, 0, 154.3 ADP)
72. Kyle Hendricks (5, 4.44, 54, 1.27, 0, 157.2 ADP)
73. Madison Bumgarner (4, 4.65, 66, 1.28, 0, 133.7 ADP)
74. Dinelson Lamet (3, 4.38, 67, 1.28, 0, 120.8 ADP)
75. Jake Odorizzi (4, 4.5, 62, 1.31, 0, 176.3 ADP)

I thought he’d move up even more since he’s in the weak Central

76. Marcus Stroman (4, 3.76, 55, 1.38, 0, 203.6 ADP)
77. Marco Gonzales (4, 4.03, 52, 1.30, 0, 368.1 ADP)
78. Ian Kennedy (1, 4.5, 23, 1.28, 11, 224.3 ADP)
79. Zac Gallen (4, 3.94, 54, 1.31, 0, 125.8 ADP)
80. Tony Watson (1, 3.68, 22, 1.20, 9, 425.9 ADP)
81. Joe Musgrove (4, 4.53, 59, 1.26, 0, 217.3 ADP)
82. Joshua James (3, 3.98, 54, 1.29, 0, 228.2 ADP)

His playing time is up in the air. Read up on his usage as we get closer to drafts.

83. Nathan Eovaldi (4, 4.01, 49, 1.29, 0, 316 ADP)
84. Sean Doolittle (1, 3.83, 23, 1.15, 8, 213.5 ADP)
85. Carlos Martinez (4, 4.01, 52, 1.34, 0, 172.5 ADP)

I’m completely out. He doesn’t have time to transition to the bullpen once he gets hurt starting.

86. Ryan Yarbrough (3, 3.82, 42, 1.22, 0, 247.1 ADP)
87. Yonny Chirinos (3, 4.01, 44, 1.21, 0, 283.6 ADP)

LOL. I love seeing these two together.

88. Aaron Civale (4, 3.89, 41, 1.28, 0, 254 ADP)
89. Luke Weaver (4, 4.33, 51, 1.3, 0, 197.1 ADP)
90. Sean Manaea (4, 4.57, 47, 1.23, 0, 182.6 ADP)
91. Julio Urias (3, 4.06, 48, 1.29, 0, 128.8 ADP)

His value will 100% be tied to his role.

92. Rich Hill (3, 4.46, 49, 1.22, 0, 289.2 ADP)
93. Dallas Keuchel (4, 4.27, 53, 1.38, 0, 268.4 ADP)
94. Mark Melancon (1, 3.68, 20, 1.32, 8, 236 ADP)

With limited time for pitchers to differentiate themselves, any good reliever who gets any Saves and/or Wins is going place high in the EOS rankings.

95. Jon Gray (4, 4.86, 67, 1.39, 0, 237.8 ADP)
96. Reynaldo Lopez (4, 4.76, 57, 1.31, 0, 307 ADP)
97. Miles Mikolas (4, 4.30, 41, 1.26, 0, 284.2 ADP)
98. Jordan Montgomery (4, 4.36, 47, 1.32, 0, 306.1 ADP)
99. Julio Teheran (4, 4.74, 59, 1.37, 0, 320.3 ADP)
100. Rick Porcello (4, 4.74, 57, 1.32, 0, 337 ADP)
101. Griffin Canning (3, 4.23, 43, 1.28, 0, 378.7 ADP)
102. Mike Foltynewicz (4, 4.74, 58, 1.35, 0, 197.5 ADP)
103. Brendan McKay (3, 3.51, 33, 1.19, 0, 322.4 ADP)
104. Caleb Smith (3, 5.02, 66, 1.33, 0, 234.1 ADP)
105. Ross Stripling (3, 3.89, 36, 1.2, 0, 332 ADP)

I could see Stripling’s value jump if he gets to be a second starter.

106. Danny Duffy (4, 4.71, 58, 1.36, 0, 471.7 ADP)
107. Joey Lucchesi (3, 4.63, 55, 1.33, 0, 244.3 ADP)
108. Matt Magill (1, 4.28, 22, 1.38, 7, 480.5 ADP)
109. Matt Barnes (2, 3.26, 32, 1.28, 3, 566.6 ADP)
110. Anthony DeSclafani (3, 4.67, 51, 1.29, 0, 245.7 ADP)
111. Matt Shoemaker (3, 4.64, 48, 1.28, 0, 344.7 ADP)
112. Chris Bassitt (3, 4.31, 42, 1.29, 0, 379.6 ADP)
113. Cole Hamels (3, 4.18, 50, 1.38, 0, 303.2 ADP)
114. Collin McHugh (3, 4.40, 44, 1.3, 0, 568.5 ADP)
115. Brandon Kintzler (1, 4.30, 15, 1.37, 9, 317.7 ADP)
116. Kevin Gausman (3, 4.57, 50, 1.32, 0, 334.4 ADP)
117. Adrian Houser (3, 4.29, 47, 1.34, 0, 234 ADP)
118. Mike Fiers (4, 4.47, 46, 1.34, 0, 369.7 ADP)
119. Ryan Pressly (1, 3.00, 30, 1.04, 2, 496.5 ADP)
120. Scott Oberg (1, 4.00, 23, 1.29, 6, 369.2 ADP)
121. Emilio Pagan (2, 3.33, 30, 1.02, 1, 384.8 ADP)

It’s interesting to see a couple of non-closers being a decent value even with a likely closer.

122. Yusei Kikuchi (3, 4.54, 49, 1.33, 0, 389.8 ADP)
123. Mitch Keller (3, 4.54, 54, 1.39, 0, 233.9 ADP)
124. Jeff Samardzija (3, 4.52, 52, 1.34, 0, 324.3 ADP)
125. Michael Pineda (3, 4.32, 37, 1.21, 0, 442.9 ADP)

Even with a limited number of starts, Pineda could be valuable. Owners will be playing chicken for the rights to roster him.

126. Mychal Givens (1, 4.11, 28, 1.22, 4, 373.5 ADP)
127. Jakob Junis (4, 5.07, 61, 1.36, 0, 497.8 ADP)
128. Yoshihisa Hirano (1, 4.07, 22, 1.31, 6, 495.3 ADP)
129. Pablo Lopez (3, 4.58, 50, 1.34, 0, 373.2 ADP)
130. Kwang-hyun Kim (3, 4.04, 37, 1.27, 0)

Give me all the shares of Kim I can get.

131. Zach Plesac (3, 4.45, 39, 1.28, 0, 444.4 ADP)
132. Dellin Betances (1, 3.29, 29, 1.15, 2, 517.6 ADP)
133. Kyle Gibson (4, 4.79, 60, 1.44, 0, 348.1 ADP)
134. Brad Keller (4, 4.60, 52, 1.43, 0, 563.5 ADP)
135. Michael Kopech (3, 4.45, 50, 1.38, 0, 284.8 ADP)