Welcome to the second installment of Fire and Ice. The introductory piece focused on the top 50 ADP players with cold stretches in the season. The article can be found at this link. From the first part, we learned that even the most dominant players in the MLB encounter short-comings in a season. In the course of a regular 162 game season, the small period was washed away in the mix of greatness, but only 60 games it’s magnified.
In contrast, Part Two will feature players selected after pick 200 that had periods of tremendous success. Smaller season means every little stat will matter more than ever. Every extra stolen base or the fluke home run in a blowout game will help determine a fantasy baseball championship. In only a week, we do have an adjusted projection leader board from Steamer for comparison. So it should help put a reference on just how any hot streak could affect a player’s season.

 

Sample Size

 

Hitters – 20 Game Hot Streak

60 Game Season (33.3% of the season)

 

Pitchers – 5 Game Hot Streak

60 Game Season / 12 GS (41.6% of the season)

 

PROJECTED 2020 LEAGUE LEADERS (Steamer)

leaders

 

Hitters

 

Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves

NFBC ADP: 239.17

 

Dansby has been an industry darling this elongated offseason. In 127 games he was able to product 17 HR, 77 Runs, 65 RBI, and 10 stolen bases. The power and speed combo this late in the draft has Swanson on many teams radars. He is slated to bat seventh in the loaded Braves lineup and if he can creep higher up in the lineup there will be even more production gained.

Until 2019, Swanson had been a subpar hitter in regards to batting average. As you can see from the chart, he tailed off in the final stretch. The good news for Dansby is the wear and tear of a full 162 game season won’t be taking its toll on him. A shortened 60 game season may be just what Swanson needs to return huge value.

 

20 Game Hot Streak – .315 / 7 HR / 3 SB

swanson

 

 

Mark Canha, OF, Oakland Athletics

NFBC ADP: 247.68

 

Mark Canha found himself in the midst of a breakout season as he set career highs in home runs(28), runs(80), and RBI(58). Equally impressive was his slash line of .273/.396/.517. Canha is penciled in to bat fifth, after Matt Olson and ahead of Khris Davis. Not a bad little spot to hit in terms of protection around you.

In the previous three seasons, we did not see much of Canha, he had just over 600 plate appearances. So it shouldn’t come as much of as a surprise that as the season progressed Canha adapted to MLB pitching as his batting average increased. The power went is peaks and valleys, but he put it all together at once later in the year. Canha is no spring chicken at the age of 31 but did have the 68th percentile in sprint speed. Toss in a few stolen bases and when he is hot, its a great time to get him in your lineup.

 

20 Game Hot Streak – .380 / 7 HR / 2 SB

canha

 

 

Nomar Mazara, OF, Chicago White Sox

NFBC ADP: 243.68

 

Only 25 years old, but it feels like Nomar Mazara has been around forever. That’s because Mazara debuted as a 21-year-old and has been mashing giant home runs ever since. In fact, last year he was responsible for the longest home run in a projected distance of 505 feet. He has moved into a new ballpark and should get ample opportunities to show off the power in Chicago.

The big downfall to Mazara is he has struggled immensely against LHP. Over the course of his career, he continued to hit about 40 points lower in batting average when he faces a lefty. This deficiency at the dish gets him taken out of the lineup. If he can take a step forward in hitting lefties and continue that prolific power for 60 games, he has the power to sit atop the MLB HR leaderboards.

20 Game Hot Streak – .355 / 5 HR / 2 SB

 

 

 

 

Pitchers

 

Marcus Stroman, SP, New York Mets

NFBC ADP: 208.76

 

Stroman was sent over to the Mets from Toronto where he broke into the MLB. Known for his smaller frame, lower strikeout rates and an enormous amount of ground balls forced. He is a bit of an anomaly in today’s pitching environment. Toronto had a far superior defense to the Mets, that helped play into Stroman’s game.

Early in the year, Stroman was dealing. He was striking out nearly a batter an inning pitched, which is a fairly big deal for a guy with 7.36 K/9. He started the season with a sub-2.00 ERA and WHIP little over 1.00. He has all the tools and skills to be an elite level starting pitcher when he is on. This is an excellent ratio pitcher when things are going his way.

 

5 Game Hot Streak – 1.79 ERA / 1.07 WHIP / 32 K

stro

 

 

Dylan Bundy, SP, Los Angeles Angels

NFBC ADP: 255.88

 

I know, how many years are we going to talk about Dylan Bundy and the breakout that is coming? Well, it’s going to be another year of it. Bundy throws a nearly untouchable slider that has a 47.9 Whiff%. Pair that with another secondary pitch like the curveball that 28.7 Whiff% and the changeup’s 32.5 Whiff%. There should never be a reason to quit on Bundy.

A move from the east coast to the west coast may be just what is needed for Bundy. After spending five years in Baltimore, he gets to hit the reset button as a member of the Angels. Besides the great arsenal, Bundy can bring with him the five-game stretch during May of 2019. Bundy has all the makings of a future ace, just needs the right place and the upside play here could be huge.

5 Game Hot Streak – 2.64 ERA / 0.98 WHIP / 26 K

 

 

 

Sandy Alcantara, SP, Miami Marlins

NFBC ADP: 260.06

 

Alcantara is one of many Miami standout rotational arms. His four-seam fastball and sinker combo are power pitches that each average over 95 mph thrown. He pairs those with his putaway slider and changeup usually thrown in two-strike outs. Alcantara has the repertoire to strike out any batter, but when they make contact he can get into some trouble.

He is still a young pitcher at only 24 years old. There is plenty of room for improvement in his arsenal and high strikeout upside. If he can learn to keep batters from hitting the ball into the stands, he will really take off. This is an end of your fantasy squad starting pitcher that if he can find that same five-game stretch in 2019, you’ll have found money. If not, cut bait and grab the next pitcher having a hot run.

5 Game Hot Streak – 1.69 ERA / 0.89 WHIP / 26 K

 

sandy

 

 

Outro

Who knows what we are going to get in the 60 game sprint of 2020? The cold spell of an MVP or the best day of an underdog? The streaks are relative to the amount of time elapsing. 20 games to a hitter or five games started to a pitcher doesn’t seem like much right now but its going to be a whole new version of fantasy baseball.

Thank you so much for taking the time!