Top 20 Dynasty Prospects – AL East Edition

We are back with the third installment of the six-part series looking through each division from a dynasty perspective. The American League East is next up. There are plenty of prospects that could play a role in shaping the future of the division. Historically, the division has been controlled by the Yankees and Red Sox. The emergence of the Rays and the Blue Jays talented youth should make the division intriguing in the years to come. The Orioles are beginning to show signs of competitiveness in the system. They currently have some of the very best prospects in baseball at the top of their organization.

With the trade deadline creeping closer, some of the players listed here could be on the move within the next week. Such a scenario could open the door for an opportunity that isn’t available with their current team. Each organization has a different level of talent at various stages of development and positions. A player ranked relatively low in the Rays organization could be placed inside the top 10 on a different team. As player movement shakes out, I will be updating each list regularly.

If you want to check out the first two parts of the series, you can find the AL West and AL Central lists here. I have revisited both divisions on various occasions since their original release to make adjustments. The more time I have with each organization, the more in-focus the overall picture becomes.

This puts me at the halfway point of the project. Once it’s fully operating, I see these lists having several benefits, particularly for deep league players who may be looking for that new name that emerges. In some cases, I will be quicker than the crowd to move a player up or down, opening the door to some potential trade opportunities. I will also continue to add more columns and features once the foundation is set. I continue to be excited about possibilities once it’s functioning how I imagine. Thanks for reading!

 

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

PlayerRankPositionLevelAge
Adley Rutschman1CAAA23
Grayson Rodriguez2RHPAA21
Gunnar Henderson3SSA+20
DL Hall4LHPAA22
Coby Mayo53BA19
Jordan Westburg6SSAA22
Colton Cowser7OFA21
Kyle Stowers8OFAA23
Connor Norby92BA21
Heston Kjerstad10OFA22
Maikol Hernandez11SSR17
Jahmai Jones122BMLB24
Drew Rom13LHPA+21
Hudson Haskin14OFA+22
Kyle Bradish15RHPAAA24
Terrin Vavra162BAA24
Michael Baumann17RHPAA25
Anderson De Los Santos18SSR17
Luis Gonzalez19OFR18
Anthony Servideo202BA22
Kyle Brnovich21RHPAA23
Garrett Stallings22RHPA+23
Kevin Smith23LHPAAA24
Samuel Basallo24CR17

BOSTON RED SOX

PlayerRankPositionLevelAge
Triston Casas11BAA21
Marcelo Mayer2SSCPX18
Jarren Duran3OFMLB24
Nick Yorke42BA+19
Blaze Jordan53BA18
Tanner Houck6RHPMLB24
Jeter Downs72BAAA22
Gilberto Jimenez8OFA+21
Brayan Bello9RHPAA22
Jay Groome10LHPAA23
Connor Seabold11RHPAAA25
Bryan Mata12RHPAA22
Miguel Bleis13OFDSL17
Juan Chacon14OFCPX18
Brainer Bonanci15SSA19
Noah Song16RHPA24
Tyler Dearden17OFA+23
Brandon Howlett183BA+22
Luis Ravelo19SSR17
Jeisson Rosario20OFAA21
Tyreque Reed211BAA24

NEW YORK YANKEES

PlayerRankPositionLevelAge
Anthony Volpe1SSA+20
Jasson Dominguez2OFA18
Oswald Peraza3SSAA22
Austin Wells4CA+22
Everson Pereira5OFA20
Trey Sweeney6SSA21
Luis Gil7RHPAAA23
Randy Vasquez8RHPAA22
Luis Medina9RHPAA22
Clarke Schmidt10RHPAAA25
Fidel Montero11OFR17
Alexander Vargas12SSR19
Estevan Florial13OFAAA23
Deivi Garcia14RHPAAA22
Ken Waldichuk15LHPAA23
Antonio Gomez16CR19
Enger Castellano173BR18
Anthony Garcia18OFR20
Yoendrys Gomez19RHPA21
Ryder Green20OFA21
Hayden Wesnewski21RHPAA23
Raimfer Salinas22OFR20

TAMPA BAY RAYS

PlayerRankPositionLevelAge
Vidal Brujan12BAAA23
Shane Baz2RHPAAA22
Josh Lowe3OFAAA23
Greg Jones4SSAA23
Carlos Colmenarez5SSR17
Taj Bradley6RHPA20
Xavier Edwards72BAA21
Curtis Mead83BA+20
Heriberto Hernandez9OFA21
Cole Wilcox10RHPA22
Nick Bitsko11RHPR19
Carson Williams12SSR18
Ruben Cardenas13OFAA23
Cooper Kinney142BR18
Tobias Myers15RHPAAA23
Austin Shenton163BAA23
Tommy Romero17RHPAAA24
John Doxakis18LHPA+22
Seth Johnson19RHPA22
Alejandro Pie20SSR19
Jonathan Aranda213BAA23
Jose Pena22OFR18
Osleivis Basabe23SSA20
JJ Goss24RHPR20

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

PlayerRankPositionLevelAge
Jordan Groshans1SSAA21
Orelvis Martinez2SSA+19
Gabriel Moreno3CAA21
Nate Pearson4RHPMLB25
Samad Taylor52BAA23
Otto Lopez6OFAA22
Manuel Beltre7SSR17
Sem Robberse8RHPA19
Rikelvin De Castro9SSR18
Miguel Hiraldo103BA20
Leo Jimenez11SSA20
Kevin Smith12SSAAA25
Dasan Brown13OFA19
Estiven Machado142BR18
Cristian Feliz151BR18
Adam Kloffenstein16RHPA20
CJ Van Eyk17RHPA+22
Josh Palacios18OFAAA25
Joey Murray19RHPAA24
Yhoangel Aponte20OFR17
Victor Mesia21CR18

Rookie Ladder: Hitters Update (6/23)

Here is a prospect question that applies to those of us who play in redraft, keeper, and dynasty leagues: Which rookie hitter will be the most valuable fantasy player in 2021?

Since the last hitter update, we’ve had a notable injury (Nick Madrigal) a couple of notable injury returns (Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jazz Chisholm), and the biggest prospect debut of the decade (Wander Franco). I’ll break down all the debutants as well as updates on the rookie ladder below!

 

PlayerTeamPos
Randy ArozarenaTBROF
Ke'Bryan HayesPIT3B
Jazz ChisholmMIASS
Wander FrancoTBRSS
Dylan CarlsonSTLOF
Alex KirilloffMIN1B
Ryan MountcastleBAL1B
Adolis GarciaTEXOF
Pavin SmithARI1B
Andrew VaughnCWS1B/LF
Yermin MercedesCWS1B/DH
Jarred KelenicSEAOF
Jonathan IndiaCIN3B
Akil BaddooDETOF
Bobby BradleyCLE1B
Zack McKinstryLAD2B/OF
Bobby DalbecBOS1B
Taylor TrammellSEAOF
Vidal BrujanTBR2B
William ContrerasATLC
Tyler StephensonCINC
Ha-seong KimSDPSS
Taylor WallsTBRSS
Owen MillerCLEUT
Kyle IsbelKCROF
Cristian PacheATLOF
Luis CampusanoSDPC
Geraldo PerdomoARISS
Tucupita MarcanoSDPSS
Julio RodriguezSEAOF
Nolan JonesCLE3B
Joey BartSFGC
Ka'ai TomOAKOF
Oneil CruzPITSS
Miguel AmayaCHCC
Lewin DiazMIA1B
Seth BeerARI1B
Drew WatersATLOF
Luke RaleyLADOF
Adley RutschmanBALC
Josh JungTEX3B
JJ BledayMIAOF
Bobby Witt Jr.KCRSS
Luke WilliamsPHIUTIL
Matt VierlingPHIOF
Josh PalaciosTOROF
Alan TrejoCOLSS
Nick MatonPHISS
Jose DeversMIA2B/3B
Nick MadrigalCWS2B

 

 

News and Notes

Randy Arozarena continues to be a Top-10 fantasy outfielder. Don’t worry about all the little blue bubbles on his Savant page. He’s on pace for a 25/25 season and is the best fantasy asset on this list.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has been super since returning from injury. His xwOBA of .384 shows you what a valuable real-life player he is. He also has enough pop and speed to be a five-category contributor.

Dylan Carlson has been a steady if unspectacular contributor for fantasy teams this season. I’d like to see him run more. While he’s not an elite burner, he definitely has the speed and athleticism to swipe double-digit bags early on in his career. His rolling xwOBA over both his last 50 and 100 PAs is spiking a bit, so keep a watch on him for a possible hot streak incoming.

Nick Madrigal is out for the season after suffering a torn hamstring that required surgical repair. He finished the season as a $3 fantasy player in 15-team mixed leagues.

Jazz Chisholm is back healthy and batting leadoff for the Fish. He’s moving ahead of Dylan Carlson in this week’s update as his upside potential given his batting position and speed is much greater than Carlson’s. Chisholm has been a $12 player in fantasy so far this season, with the upside to finish in the $20+ tier.

 

Adolis Garcia has predictably cooled way down. Given his plate approach, he’s going to be prone to cold snaps like this. However, the power upside alone is worth chasing, and Garcia has already made his fantasy owners look like geniuses for those early season FAAB claims.

Alex Kirilloff is heating up, and his xwOBA (.388, top 10% in MLB) to wOBA (.313) gap should tighten over the coming months. He can really hit, has shown off some power already (88th percentile barrel rate), and even stole a base this week. He’s moving above Adolis as I believe in his bat more for the remainder of the season.

Pavin Smith has found himself bumped back down the order. His YTD production is similar to Carlson and Kirilloff, but I think he just has less upside than either of those hitters.

Yermin Mercedes has gone catatonic since launching the 3-0 home run off Willians Astudillo back on May 18. He was hitting .364 on that day and has hit .167 since. His next stop might be Triple-A.

Andrew Vaughn moves above his teammate on the ladder. His rookie season has been impressive if for no other reason than how seamlessly he was able to handle LF duties out of the blue. However, there’s a glaring weakness in Vaughn’s game at the MLB level so far: he can’t hit right-handers. He has a .472 OPS against RHP this season compared to a 1.121 OPS against lefties. There’s plenty of upside potential for Vaughn if he gets more comfortable against righties, it just might take him some time to get there.

Jarred Kelenic is back mashing at Triple-A (5 HR, 4 SB, .247 ISO). I would not be surprised to see him come back to the MLB level again this year and have it click for him the second time around.

Zack McKinstry is back playing nearly every day for the Dodgers. His multi-position eligibility is nice, but he’s not adding much more fantasy value at this point.

Bobby Dalbec has still been a $2 fantasy player this season despite his .214 batting average and 37.2% K-rate. If he could just make a little more contact, there’s a lot of fantasy value lurking here.

Taylor Trammell is back with the big club and struggling mightily again with only one hit in his last ten appearances.

Ryan Mountcastle is on a heater. He’s making more contact and plenty of it has been hard contact (114.6 mph max EV, 10.7% barrel rate). He’s been a $15 player in 2021 thus far, and he might even have the upside to climb into the $20 tier if his contact rate continues rebounding back toward career norms. Multi-position eligibility is another nice feature here. He’s ascending the ladder this week.

Vidal Brujan didn’t get the call yet. I would have bet on him making his MLB debut before either Taylor Walls or Wander Franco, but that just wasn’t in the cards. He’s still going to be a very valuable fantasy asset.

William Contreras really gives you plenty of value as a young catcher. He’s posted a $5 fantasy season thus far, and he has the power potential (114.2 mph max EV) to be a long-term Top-5 asset at the position in dynasty leagues.

Akil Baddoo has made adjustments! He’s making more contact, being more patient at the dish, and has now posted a .364 OBP through 55 games as a 22-year-old rookie. He also has the power and speed tools to be a fantasy asset even in redraft leagues this season ($7 player so far in 2021). The Tigers’ have also been sitting him frequently against LHP, which is necessary as he’s striking out against them 40% of the time with a .280 OPS. Still, in deep and/or daily moves leagues he’s a must roster guy. Moving up the ladder this week.

Jonathan India’s rolling xwOBA is on a rise over his last 100 PAs. His power+speed production has made him a $6 player in 2021 so far. If he gets on a heater, that value could rise over the rest of the season. He’s climbing the ladder this week.

Taylor Walls doesn’t look like a big-time fantasy asset, but his ability to draw walks and play strong defense at shortstop should keep his bat in the lineup.

Cristian Pache is striking out at a 41% clip at Triple-A on his ‘rehab assignment’.

Ha-Seong Kim now has 5 HR + 5 SBs on the season. However he’s still only been a replacement-level fantasy player in 15-team mixed leagues this year. He’s currently day-to-day with a finger injury.

Bobby Bradley has smashed 5 home runs in 55 PAs with a 114.2 mph max EV. It sucks that it took Cleveland so long to call him up, but he’s here and he’s fantastic!

New Debuts

 

Wander Franco – 3B/SS – Tampa Bay Rays

We’ve been treated to two MEGA prospect debuts in 2021 so far. First, it was Jarred Kelenic with the Mariners, now it’s Wander Franco with the Rays. Franco has been the consensus #1 overall prospect for some time now, steamrolling older competition throughout the minor leagues during his professional career so far. Still just 20 years-old, Wander is the first player born in 2001 to make his MLB debut. Tampa will likely play him at multiple positions across the infield, giving Wander another extra boost in fantasy value.

I watched a fair amount of Wander’s videotape throughout his pro career this offseason. In their book ‘Future Value’, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel make the point that the ‘hit tool’ is a tool of historical progression. It’s best viewed at multiple points throughout a player’s career. Well, after watching video of Wander throughout his career, I can tell you that his hit tool is really elite. It’s a combination of a superb batting eye, pitch recognition, hand-eye coordination, bat plane flexibility, and bat speed that should be productive no matter who is pitching to him.

I still have my doubts as to whether Wander will be an “elite” ($40+) fantasy asset. I’m not sure that he will both hit enough home runs and steal enough bags to be in the 1st overall pick conversation with Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Fernando Tatis Jr. However, the flip side of that is Wander is a potential $30+ fantasy asset as soon as this season. And he should be reliable in that range throughout his career. I think his best fantasy comp is Jose Ramirez, with the caveat that Wander has more raw power and can probably get to more home run power in games without relying on the JoRam ‘pulled flyball’ trickery.

 

Matt Vierling – OF – Philadelphia Phillies

Matt Vierling was the Phillies 5th round choice out of Notre Dame in the 2018 MLB draft. He didn’t do much early on in his professional career, but started the 2021 campaign scorching the competition in Double-A. He earned a brief three-game promotion to Triple-A, and then got called-up by the Phillies to provide extra outfield depth with Bryce Harper nursing a back injury.

In 24 games at Double-A, Vierling posted a .387 estimated xwOBA with a 13.0% estimated barrel rate. He’s a patient hitter with enough power to drive mistakes. He’s also been strong against both LHP and RHP this year, making him a good depth option for the Phillies. It will take a long-term injury to a major contributor for Vierling to have redraft relevance in 2021, however.

 

Luke Williams – 2B/3B/SS/OF – Philadelphia Phillies

The mega-versatile Luke Williams was called-up to be a primary bench piece for the Phillies. Since being called-up on June 8th, Williams has played 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, and RF while hitting in seven different positions in the batting order. And he’s been really productive, posting a 146 wRC+ in his first 12 MLB games.

Williams’ profile screams ‘better in real life than fantasy’. He can give your team some versatility on the bench, but he’s unlikely to hit for enough power to be a big fantasy asset. That being said, Williams did manage 30 stolen bases over 125 games in Double-A ball in 2019. And he’s posted an 88th percentile sprint speed in his time in the Bigs in 2021. So, if he gets enough green-lights, he’s a potential speed option if your team is in need of steals.

 

Rookie Ladder: Pitchers Update 6/10

Here is a prospect question that applies to those of us who play in redraft, keeper, and dynasty leagues: Which rookie pitcher will be the most valuable fantasy player in 2021?

The triumvirate of Ian Anderson, Trevor Rogers, and Casey Mize continue to hold onto the top three rungs of the ladder. Injuries to Sixto Sanchez, Michael Kopech, and Adbert Alzolay have opened the door to some new guys starting to climb. All that and more in this week’s update!

 

PlayerTeamRole
Ian AndersonATLRotation
Trevor RogersMIARotation
Casey MizeDETRotation
Michael KopechCWSIL
Dane DunningTEXRotation
Tarik SkubalDETRotation
Adbert AlzolayCHCIL
Logan GilbertSEARotation
Alek ManoahTORRotation
Cody PoteetMIARotation
Nate PearsonTORTriple-A
Garret CrochetCWSBullpen
Sixto SanchezMIAIL
Josh FlemingTBRBulk guy
Luis PatinoTBRTriple-A
Sammy LongSFGBulk guy
Sam HentgesCLERotation
Spencer HowardPHIRotation
Jackson KowarKCRRotation
Deivi GarciaNYYTriple-A
Eli MorganCLERotation
Triston McKenzieCLETriple-A
Brent Honeywell Jr.TBRTriple-A
Dean KramerBALTriple-A
J.B. BukauskasARIBullpen
Chris RodriguezLAABullpen
Kohei AriharaTEXIL
Daniel LynchKCRTriple-A
Nick LodoloCINAA
Zac LowtherBALTriple-A
Daulton JeffriesOAKAAA
Mackenzie GoreSDPAAA
Matt ManningDETAAA
Josiah GrayLADAAA
Brendan McKayTBRIL
Brailyn MarquezCHCAA
Adonis MedinaPHIAAA
Alex LangeDETRP
Wil CrowePITSP5

 

 

 

News and Notes

Ian Anderson has labored through two starts since our last update, only pitching a combined 8.1 innings between the two starts. He had trouble locating his stuff each time, leading to a poor strike% and requiring him to throw a lot of pitches to get outs (87 and 98 pitches thrown over the last two appearances). Still, I don’t think there’s a reason to push him off the top spot on the ladder. We might just need to recalibrate expectations to that of a 3.50 ERA pitcher from that of a 3.25 ERA pitcher moving forward.

If you’re a Trevor Rogers owner you’re dancing so far this season. He put up two quality starts since our last update. Just monitor his fastball velocity chart as the season wears on, as he’s had two lower velocity blips over his last three outings:

 

 

Casey Mize has posted quality starts in each of his last two outings and eight consecutive above average game scores. His strikeout stuff hasn’t been all that we’ve hoped for (yet), but I think that could improve as he works on harnessing his arsenal.

 

Since the last update Sixto Sanchez was shut down from throwing, and then started throwing off flat ground again. The team is probably going to continue to be cautious with him moving forward, meaning he’s holding little to no value as a redraft stash at this point. He’s sliding way down the list this week.

Michael Kopech is on the IL with a hamstring injury, but it sounds like he’s making good progress toward returning in the next week or two. No need to press the panic button with him.

Dane Dunning bounced back from a rough outing on May 26 to post two consecutive game scores above 50. He should continue eating innings in a back-end rotation role for your fantasy squad.

Adbert Alzolay was lifted from his last start and placed on the IL with a blister.

Tarik Skubal looked pretty strong in his last outing against a White Sox offense that usually chews up left-handers. He punched out eleven hitters during five innings of work. His four-seam fastball was touching 97 and working up in the zone. His slider and knuckle curve presented hitters with two distinct breaking ball shapes to change eye levels. And his changeup came in at 83 mph to keep hitters off-balance. He’s sliding above the injured Alzolay this week. If he keeps it up, he will be above Dunning in the next update.

 

Cody Poteet is off to the IL with a knee injury. The team is calling it a sprain, so hopefully he won’t miss too much time.

Nate Pearson has been way better than his 7.24 Triple-A ERA would suggest. He’s been BABIPd to death (.440), but his K-BB% is an elite 32.8%. I think he’s the next SP up for Toronto in case of emergency.

Garrett Crochet has a career 0.37 ERA in 24.1 innings. The White Sox will still probably try to move him to the rotation, but he’s already an effective bullpen weapon.

Luis Patino is back from the IL, but has been sent to Triple-A Durham to stretch out into a more traditional starter’s role.

Sam Hentges had a rough start on May 30 and then an even rougher (1.2 innings, 5 ER) relief appearance on June 6. The Cleveland rotation is kind of taking on water at this point, so Hentges could still be in the mix for starts in the short run. Long term, I still think he’s probably best as a relief option.

Spencer Howard is being used in short bursts as the Phillies remain committed to keeping his innings down this year. Don’t expect much fantasy production from him until 2022.

Logan Gilbert shook off some of the rookie dust since the last update. He posted game scores of 62 and 55 in his last two outings. I moved him irrationally low in the last update, he’s swinging back up into the Top-10 of the ladder for this update.

 

Alek Manoah has basically given us the rookie rollercoaster. The first outing was good and gave us a glimpse of a future front line starter, the second outing was a total dud, and the third outing was a middling performance that we should expect from him for the remainder of the season. Pearson has better stuff, but Manoah is probably the steadier option for the Blue Jays rotation at the moment.

Dean Kremer got optioned back down to Triple-A Norfolk.

Chris Rodriguez avoided a long IL stint and is back in the Angels bullpen.

 

New Debuts

Eli Morgan – RHP – Cleveland Indians

As I noted earlier, the Cleveland rotation is kind of taking on water at this point. The team called up Eli Morgan on May 28 to help plug a hole before optioning him back down to Triple-A. However, a quick look at the club’s Roster Resource page shows upcoming rotation holes against the Mariners on Saturday and the Orioles on Tuesday. Morgan made a Triple-A start (3.2 innings) on Tuesday June 8.

Morgan played his college ball at Gonzaga. He’s never been a high-pedigree prospect, and relies on command, control, and pitchability to get things done. He’s effective in that role, however, posting a 3.16 ERA over 336.1 innings at the minor league level. He’s fantasy irrelevant for all but very deep dynasty players right now, but if he can lock down a rotation role then he could become a possibly streaming option depending on the matchup.

 

Jackson Kowar – RHP – Kansas City Royals

The Royals are seemingly hell-bent on breaking in all their promising young pitchers at the MLB level this season. The latest call-up was RHP Jackson Kowar. Kowar was part of the Royals’ pitching-focused 2018 draft, where the team took him alongside Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, and Kris Bubic. He blew up like a bargain-basement M-80 in his debut (current ERA 54.00). However, he is scheduled to get another start this Saturday against Oakland.

I’ve prefered Kowar to fellow Royals’ draft-mates Lynch and Bubic since their professional debuts. His fastball-changeup combo should work at the professional level, as I believe the changeup can be used as a true out pitch against MLB hitters. His weakness has always been the breaking ball, which he will need to make himself into something more than a back-end rotation piece going forward. He seems to have the feel for spinning a breaker. The problem is his command and feel for the pitch wanes. The team seems to be confident enough in his abilities to let him try and figure that part out at the highest level. If he can, then there’s still big upside potential here.

 

Sammy Long – LHP – San Francisco Giants

And then there’s THIS guy. He made his MLB debut in a bulk relief role for the Giants on June 8 and looked just fantastic. The fact that he made it to the Show is a testament to his mental fortitude. Long was released by both the Rays and White Sox before joining the Giants organization. He’s been supremely good at both Double-A and Triple-A in 2021, earning the call up to San Francisco this week.

Long looked electric in his MLB debut. He went 4.0 innings in a bulk relief role, striking out seven batters and inducing 10 swinging strikes. His fastball touched 98 mph and he dotted it around the zone. His curveball generated some particularly uncomfortable swings, leading to a 37.5% whiff rate for the pitch in the outing. He also sprinkled in a changeup, sinker, and slider, giving him the potential for a starter’s repertoire. I think he’s probably going to stick at the MLB level given his stuff, and there’s even a decent chance he gets the opportunity to start the next time the rotation swings around to the ‘bullpen game’ spot.

Top 20 Dynasty Prospects – AL West Edition

The time has come to take stock of how some organizations are shaping up in the Minor Leagues. With a good amount of data out for 2021, there have been some early-season breakouts. While the typical caveat of a small sample size always applies, it would be wise to notice some trends taking place. Not every prospect with a gaudy slash line will sustain the production. But it is worth noting when players are showing noticeable statistical improvements. In many cases, we haven’t had eyes on these players for over a year. There are bound to be some surprises, likely more so than a traditional year.

When taking on this project, it seemed simple enough. Rank the top 20 prospects in each organization from a dynasty perspective. I took this on as a solo project because I thought it would be a helpful way to keep track of all the lists I was posting on Twitter throughout the off-season. I didn’t fully appreciate how intensive it is to keep up with every organization at the same time. In hindsight, there’s probably a reason most lists like this are released in the winter when everyone has time to catch their breath. With games actively taking place, it can be a monumental task to keep up with all the movement.

Originally the plan was to display all 30 organizations at once. That turned out to be more difficult than I had anticipated. I had a grandiose vision of what this could look like with all the team colors but there is probably a good reason I have never seen what I was picturing in my mind. So to make the material more digestible for myself and the reader, I have decided to display organizational rankings by each division. I was able to give more individual time to each team rather than trying to juggle all 30 organizations at once.

I will begin the series focusing on the AL West. I am familiar with the history and dynamics of the division living near the Seattle area for the better part of my life. The division is up for grabs over the next decade, and several of the players on these lists will play a crucial role in determining which organization comes out on top. There is plenty of high-level talent scattered throughout these organizations located at every level throughout the Minor Leagues.

Just like a dynasty list, these rankings are a snapshot in time. They are constantly evolving as breakouts happen, players under-perform expectations, and perspectives shift. You could ask 100 people to rank each organization, and their lists might all look a little different. I hope you enjoy this and will check out the upcoming divisions. The idea is to keep these updated regularly when graduations, promotions, and perspectives shift.

 

HOUSTON ASTROS

PlayerRankPositionLevelAge
Pedro Leon1SSAAA23
Jeremy Pena2SSAAA23
Hunter Brown3RHPAAA23
Joe Perez43BAA21
Forrest Whitley5RHPAA23
Alex Santos II6RHPA19
Jake Meyers7OFMLB25
Korey Lee8CAA22
Enmanuel Valdez92BAA22
Yohander Martinez10SSA19
Brett Conine11RHPAAA24
Jairo Solis12RHPA21
Richi Gonzalez13OFR18
Dauri Lorenzo14SSR18
Freudis Nova15SSA+21
Matthew Barefoot16OFA+23
Alex McKenna17OFAA23
Shawn Dubin18RHPAAA25
Colin Barber19OFA+20
Shay Whitcomb203BA+22
Misael Tamarez21RHPA+21
Zach Daniels22OFA22
Jordan Brewer23OFA23

LOS ANGELES ANGELS

PlayerRankPositionLevelAge
Reid Detmers1LHPMLB22
Arol Vera2SSA18
Kyren Paris32BA+19
Sam Bachman4RHPA+21
Jordyn Adams5OFA+21
Davis Daniel6RHPAAA24
Ky Bush7LHPA+21
Alexander Ramirez8OFA19
David Calabrese9OFR18
Denzer Guzman10SSR17
Edgar Quero11CR17
Izzy Wilson12OFAA23
Werner Blakely132BR19
Jeremiah Jackson14SSA21
Landon Marceaux15RHPA21
D'Shawn Knowles16OFA20
Alejandro Hidalgo17RHPR18
Adrian Placencia18SSR18
Packy Naughton19LHPMLB25
Cooper Criswell20RHPMLB25
Brendon Davis213BAAA24
Orlando Martinez22OFAA23
Ryan Smith23LHPAA24
Jack Kochanowicz24RHPA20
Brent Killam25LHPA+23

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

PlayerRankPositionLevelAge
Tyler Soderstrom1CA19
Pedro Pineda2OFR17
Daulton Jefferies4RHPMLB25
Robert Puason3SSA18
A.J. Puk5LHPMLB26
Nick Allen62BAAA22
Jordan Diaz73BA+20
Brayan Buelvas8OFA19
Junior Perez9OFA19
Michael Guldberg10OFA+21
Lawrence Butler111BA21
Jeff Criswell12RHPA+22
Cody Thomas13OFAAA26
Luis Barrera14OFAAA25
Colin Peluse15RHPA+23
Logan Davidson16SSAA23
Tyler Baum17RHPAAA23
Buddy Reed18OFAAA26
Austin Beck19OFA+22
Lazaro Armenteros20OFA+22

SEATTLE MARINERS

PlayerRankPositionLevelAge
Julio Rodriguez1OFAA20
Noelvi Marte2SSA+19
George Kirby3RHPAA23
Emerson Hancock4RHPAA21
Zach DeLoach5OFAA22
Harry Ford6CCPX18
Gabriel Gonzalez7OFDSL17
Brandon Williamson8LHPAA23
Matt Brash9RHPAA23
Kaden Polcovich102BAA22
Cal Raleigh11CMLB24
Edwin Arroyo12SSCPX18
Jonatan Clase13OFCPX19
Victor Labrada14OFA+21
Milkar Perez153BCPX19
George Feliz16OFDSL18
Alberto Rodriguez17OFA20
Cade Marlowe18OFA+24
Amador Arias19SSDSL17
Starlin Aguilar203BDSL17
Michael Morales21RHPCPX19
Juan Then22RHPA+21
Taylor Dollard23RHPA+22
Levi Stoudt24RHPA+23
Connor Phillips25RHPA20
Robert Perez261BA21
Luis Bolivar27OFDSL17
Isaiah Campbell28RHPA+24


TEXAS RANGERS

PlayerRankPositionLevelAge
Josh Jung13BAAA23
Justin Foscue22BAA22
Dustin Harris31BA+22
Luisangel Acuna4SSA19
Evan Carter5OFA18
Cole Winn6RHPAA21
Sherten Apostel73BAAA22
Ezequiel Duran82BA+22
Maximo Acosta9SSR18
Yonny Hernandez102BMLB23
Josh Smith11SSAA24
Yerry Rodriguez12RHPAA23
Sam Huff13CAA23
Chris Seise14SSA+22
Trevor Hauver152BA+22
Zak Kent16RHPAA23
Keithron Moss172BA19
Yeison Morrobel18OFR17
Curtis Terry191BAAA24
Bubba Thompson20OFAA23
Ricky Vanasco21RHPA22
Bayron Lora22OFR18

Rookie Ladder: Hitters Update (6/2)

Here is a prospect question that applies to those of us who play in redraft, keeper, and dynasty leagues: Which rookie hitter will be the most valuable fantasy player in 2021?

The calendar has flipped to June, and we’ve had some movement on the ladder over the last month of the MLB season. I’ll break down all the debutants as well as updates on the rookie ladder below!

 

PlayerTeamPos
Randy ArozarenaTBROF
Ke'Bryan HayesPIT3B
Dylan CarlsonSTLOF
Nick MadrigalCWS2B
Jazz ChisholmMIASS
Adolis GarciaTEXOF
Alex KirilloffMIN1B
Pavin SmithARI1B
Yermin MercedesCWS1B/DH
Andrew VaughnCWS1B/LF
Jarred KelenicSEAOF
Zack McKinstryLAD2B/OF
Bobby DalbecBOS1B
Taylor TrammellSEAOF
Ryan MountcastleBAL1B
Vidal BrujanTBR2B
Wander FrancoTBRSS
William ContrerasATLC
Akil BaddooDETOF
Jonathan IndiaCIN3B
Taylor WallsTBRSS
Owen MillerCLEUT
Kyle IsbelKCROF
Tyler StephensonCINC
Cristian PacheATLOF
Ha-seong KimSDPSS
Luis CampusanoSDPC
Geraldo PerdomoARISS
Tucupita MarcanoSDPSS
Julio RodriguezSEAOF
Nolan JonesCLE3B
Joey BartSFGC
Ka'ai TomOAKOF
Oneil CruzPITSS
Miguel AmayaCHCC
Lewin DiazMIA1B
Seth BeerARI1B
Drew WatersATLOF
Luke RaleyLADOF
Bobby BradleyCLE1B
Adley RutschmanBALC
Josh JungTEX3B
JJ BledayMIAOF
Bobby Witt Jr.KCRSS
Josh PalaciosTOROF
Alan TrejoCOLSS
Nick MatonPHISS
Jose DeversMIA2B/3B

 

News and Notes

I said this during the last update and I’ll say it again for this one: Randy Arozarena has been just fine for fantasy. He’s projected to be a $24 player in 2021 according to the FanGraphs Auction calculator, making him a Top-10 outfielder for fantasy purposes so far this year. And, he hasn’t even really hit the ball that well, as he’s whiffing a ton and has only posted a 19th percentile xwOBA this season. This means that the ceiling for Randy’s fantasy production is probably even higher than this. He’s in firm control of the top spot on the rookie hitter ladder.

28-year-old Adolis Garcia is having a full-on Bull Durham breakout with the Texas Rangers, and he’s still ‘rookie eligible’ despite his journeyman status. He’s been the 2nd most valuable fantasy outfielder after Ronald Acuna Jr. in 2021. Massive Whiff and Chase rates combined with a low BB% likely means that we’ve seen Adolis’s best production already. But man, it’s already been a fun and profitable ride.

Ke’Bryan Hayes should be activated off the injured list this week. He has really tested the patience of his fantasy managers this season.

Dylan Carlson has been a steady real-life performer thus far. But for fantasy purposes, he’s been playing like a $5 player in 15-team leagues. He has been relatively hot over his last 50 PAs according to his rolling xwOBA, so maybe he can unleash some more pop as the summer weather heats up.

Carlson’s former high school teammate, Nick Madrigal, has been doing the usual Nick Madrigal things. He has a Top-10 fantasy 2B profile right now just based on his batting average and playing time. The next fantasy gear for Madrigal is to steal some bases, at which point he becomes a Top-5 2B. He doesn’t have elite speed, but he’s posted an 82nd percentile sprint speed score so far this year. The White Sox are just a middle-of-the-road team in terms of stolen base attempts (0.60 per game). If Madrigal played for Kansas City, you might see SB totals (and overall fantasy value) in a similar territory as Whit Merrifield. But the biggest recent Madrigal news is that he’s hit a home run since our last update!

 

Jazz Chisholm is finally back in the lineup and batting leadoff. Here’s hoping his layoff won’t cool off his performance too much.

Pavin Smith has been a fine fantasy replacement-level guy so far this year. His Statcast page features a lot of positives right now and his rolling xwOBA has picked up steam over both his last 50 and 100 PA samples. If he heats up there’s no reason he can’t finish the season more valuable than even Dylan Carlson. It looks like his days hitting near the top of the order are over for now though.

Yermin Mercedes has cooled off since “Hall of Fame person” Tony LaRussa publicly threw him under the bus for taking a Willians Astudillo 3-0 curveball to the cheap seats. He still presents a solid contact and power profile, he’s just going to be prone to streakiness given his overactive (1st percentile chase rate) approach at the plate.

Yermin’s teammate Andrew Vaughn has impressed us more this season with his glove than with his bat. He’s clearly been a better left fielder so far in his career than Eloy Jimenez ever was. He has a solid bat, but he’s going to have to get cooking in the power department to turn a profit for his fantasy owners in 2021. So far he’s been a sub-replacement level OF in 15-team mixed leagues.

Inconsistent playing time and a 36.0% strikeout-rate has been the story of the season for Bobby Dalbec so far. He just hasn’t got going so far this season.

Taylor Trammell went absolutely bananas during his time in Triple-A, and the club called him back up to the big club after Kyle Lewis went down with a meniscus injury in his right knee. He should get regular playing time once again. He needs his Triple-A hot streak to translate to making more consistent contact on pitches in the strike zone at the MLB level, where he’s struggled mightily in 2021 (68.6% zone contact rate).

Zack McKinstry is back from the IL. I’m sliding him up above Dalbec and Trammell, as I believe that McKinstry’s bat is just more consistent than either of those guys.

Ryan Mountcastle has given little glimpses of promise with stolen bases and a 113 mph max exit velocity. But, his K-BB% is nearly 30% this season, which is basically unusable for any Major Leaguer not named Javier Baez.

Wander Franco has been solid at Triple-A as a 20-year-old. But when the Rays traded Willy Adames to Milwaukee, it was Taylor Walls who got first crack at the MLB roster spot.

Jarred Kelenic got the call, and with Kyle Lewis going on the IL, he’s going to be Seattle’s everyday centerfielder. It’s very early, but it’s also clear that Kelenic will need to adjust to MLB pitching. Especially breaking stuff, which he’s posted a measly .167 xwOBA against so far this year.

Alex Kirilloff is back from his wrist injury and seems to be hitting the ball fine. I think he has as much promise as any hitter on this list and could go on a heater sometime this summer. He won’t give you stolen bases from a fantasy perspective, but he could finish the season as a Top-50 outfielder even with all the time he’s missed.

Jonathan India is holding on to the starting 2B job, but hasn’t done much of anything else to make a move up the ladder.

Kyle Isbel remains at Triple-A.

Akil Baddoo can still punish mistakes, but his contact-rate is simply too bad to count on him as a consistent fantasy contributor.

Cristian Pache is dealing with groin tightness during his Triple-A rehab assignment.

Vidal Brujan has done a little bit of everything that’s fantasy-relevant at Triple-A so far. Do we see him promoted to MLB before Wander Franco? I think there’s a good chance that happens. And if it does happen, he’s the type of player with a power/speed profile that can turn things around for your fantasy team quickly. He’s high up my personal stash list for redraft leagues.

William Contreras has shown a propensity for hitting the snot out of the ball (84th percentile max EV). He’s already a positive contributor for those of you in two-catcher leagues, and probably should be monitored even in single catcher setups.

 

New Debuts

 

Owen Miller – UT – Cleveland Indians

Owen Miller was traded to Cleveland as part of the deal that sent Mike Clevinger to the Padres. He’s a high-floor player with both a polished approach at the plate and a polished glove that can play all over the diamond. At Triple-A this year, he was hugely productive with the bat (.466 wOBA). However, his statistical line was really pumped up by a .500 BABIP at the level early on.

Miller got everyday reps out of the gate, appearing at each infield spot and DH in his first week in the Show. He’s struggled to hit MLB pitching so far, so he’s likely going to be relegated to a super-utility role in the event he can stick on the active roster. I don’t forsee him becoming fantasy-relevant in any format outside of deep dynasties.

 

Taylor Walls – SS – Tampa Bay Rays

Taylor Walls was Tampa Bay’s 3rd round draft pick out of Florida State in the 2017 draft. He’s impressed throughout his professional career, so much so that he made Willy Adames expendable at the MLB level for the club. Since his promotion, Walls has been the team’s everyday shortstop and generally hits sixth in the batting order.

In a lot of ways Taylor Walls, 24, is a similar prospect to Owen Miller. Both are high-floor guys due to their polished approach at the plate as well as their ability to sling the leather on the infield dirt. Walls has looked like a more dynamic offensive threat at times at the minor league level, so if you’re looking for cover for a shortstop or middle infield spot during the 2021 injury plague, I think Walls is the better bet of the two players.

 

Trevor Larnach – OF – Minnesota Twins

Trevor Larnach, 24, was Nick Madrigal’s college teammate at Oregon State University. Minnesota popped him with the 20th overall pick in the 2018 MLB draft. Since being called-up on May 8th, Larnach has appeared in 21 games for the Twins, seeing time primarily in left field.

Similar to his rookie ladder teammate Alex Kirilloff, Larnach has a great feel for hitting. He’s patient (below-average chase rate) but not passive (above average zone swing %), and can absolutely squash a baseball when desired (his 116 mph max exit velocity this season is good for 98th percentile among all MLB hitters). He should be able to hold down a lineup spot while contributing HRs, Runs, and RBIs for your fantasy squad for the remainder of the season.

 

Rookie Ladder: Pitchers Update 5/26

Here is a prospect question that applies to those of us who play in redraft, keeper, and dynasty leagues: Which rookie pitcher will be the most valuable fantasy player in 2021?

Ian Anderson continues to impress, while Trevor Rogers and Casey Mize seem to be establishing themselves as reliable MLB rotation pieces. Beyond those three at the top, there’s a lot of uncertainty, injuries, and changing roles. I’ll go through all that, plus some recent notable prospect call-ups, to hopefully help you gain an edge in your leagues for the remainder of the 2021 season:

 

PlayerTeamRole
Ian AndersonATLRotation
Trevor RogersMIARotation
Casey MizeDETRotation
Sixto SanchezMIAIL
Michael KopechCWSSwingman
Dane DunningTEXRotation
Adbert AlzolayCHCRotation
Tarik SkubalDETRotation
Cody PoteetMIARotation
Nate PearsonTORTriple-A
Garret CrochetCWSBullpen
Josh FlemingTBRBulk guy
Luis PatinoTBRIL
Sam HentgesCLERotation
Spencer HowardPHIRotation
Logan GilbertSEARotation
Alek ManoahTORRotation
Deivi GarciaNYYTriple-A
Triston McKenzieCLETriple-A
Brent Honeywell Jr.TBRTriple-A
Dean KramerBALRotation
J.B. BukauskasARIBullpen
Chris RodriguezLAAIL
Kohei AriharaTEXIL
Nick LodoloCINAA
Zac LowtherBALAlternate Site
Daulton JeffriesOAKAAA
Mackenzie GoreSDPAAA
Matt ManningDETAAA
Josiah GrayLADAAA
Brendan McKayTBRIL
Brailyn MarquezCHCAA
Adonis MedinaPHIAAA
Alex LangeDETRP
Wil CrowePITSP5

 

 

News and Notes

 

Ian Anderson keeps plugging away in the Braves rotation. He’s still walking a few more batters than you’d like to see, but the flip side is he’s effectively wild, keeping hitters off-balance and posting an above-average number of strikeouts (25.2% K-rate in 2021). ERA, FIP, and xFIP are all nearly in alignment with Anderson — he’s around a 3.30 ERA talent that is going to give his team a shot at six effective innings each 5th day. You can’t really ask for much more than this out of a rookie hurler.

Trevor Rogers continues his breakout season. With his fastball averaging 95 mph this year, the totality of Rogers’ stuff has taken a step forward. The changeup has been a great weapon (34.9% whiff rate), and his slider has shown vast improvement (42.6% whiff rate, up over 11% from 2020). He’s had no issues working deep into games (only one start less than 5.0 innings this year), and he’s handling opposite-handed batters without much difficulty (1.99 ERA, 0.93 WHIP vs RHB in 2021). In short, he’s looking like a total starting pitcher package.

Casey Mize started the 2021 season with some bumps, but he has been dynamite in the month of May. His game scores over his last four starts (50 is average): 61, 63, 71, 72. He’s a relevant SP in all formats.

Sixto Sanchez has been throwing bullpens, but has yet to appear in a competitive setting in 2021. We might not see him in the Bigs until the end of June (or later).

Michael Kopech has shuttled back to the bullpen, but he’s been dynamite this year. He’s the next man up for the White Sox rotation in the event of an injury or ineffective performance. His stuff has been really electric, with a developing changeup as the final piece of the puzzle:

Triston McKenzie has been sent back down to Triple-A. His four-seam fastball has averaged only 91.2 mph over 7 MLB starts thus far in 2021. When you see him back again, it’s likely going to be in a relief role.

Dane Dunning was excellent the last time out against the Yankees, posting a game score of 71 while pitching six scoreless innings. He doesn’t have the ceiling of Kopech or Sixto, so I’m keeping him below those two for now. But his sophomore season is going well, making the Rangers feel good as getting him as part of the return for Lance Lynn from the White Sox.

Tarik Skubal is back making starts for the Tigers, turning in a couple usable five inning outings over his last two starts. Skubal’s issue is that his fastball has been supremely hittable, with batters posting a .688 xSLG against the pitch so far in 2021. His overall barrel rate allowed is 17.9%, putting him in the bottom 1% of the league.

Nate Pearson made one MLB start which lasted 2.1 innings before he was shuttled back down to Triple-A Buffalo. He’s been passed (for now) by Alek Manoah on the Toronto pitching depth chart for this season.

Adbert Alzolay continues to get results despite a 23.7% HR/FB rate in 2021. He’s yet to turn in a totally dominant outing this year, but he’s been usable even in 12-teamers. He’s throwing his slider 47% of the time, and with good reason, as it’s a “Big League” pitch. His next step is to figure out his fastball mix, and how to best locate each to avoid the longball.

Kohei Arihara underwent shoulder surgery and there’s a good chance that he could miss the rest of the season.

Garrett Crochet has looked like a different pitcher in 2021. His average velocity on his four-seam fastball has dipped to 96.6 mph, and he doesn’t command it well enough to get by with it as much in that lower velocity band. Hitters have posted a .357 xwOBA against the pitch in 2021, compared to a .176 xwOBA against in 2020 when the pitch was sitting 100 mph. The good news is that Crochet has shown a willingness to rely on his slider and changeup more. Both pitches have been getting good results. There’s a starter’s profile in here somewhere. We just might have to wait until 2022 to see it.

Josh Fleming has been good in his bulk inning role, and is on the way to establishing himself as YARBRO 2.0.

Chris Rodriguez is on the IL with a shoulder issue. The team thinks he might be activated by the end of the week. Here’s hoping it’s nothing too serious, given that timetable.

Luis Patino cut open the middle finger on his pitching hand, and is on the 10-day IL until that heals up. He’s been usable in an opener/bulk-inning role for Tampa this year.

“The Lithuanian Assassin” J.B. Bukauskas has struggled in a bullpen role so far this season. His fastball, in particular, has been extremely hittable and hasn’t demonstrated any characteristics of a ‘closer’s fastball’. Don’t look for him to graduate into high leverage work any time soon.

Corey Kluber left his last start for the Yankees with right shoulder tightness, so there’s a chance that we see Deivi Garcia up soon. However, Deivi has been pretty pedestrian in four-starts at Triple-A, as he’s been weighed down by borderline unusable control (17.4% BB-rate).

Sam Hentges has made three consecutive starts for Cleveland, and now Zach Plesac has been shelved with his Hulkamania-related injury. Hentges has been wild, so don’t count on him in redraft this season. However, there is enough to like to make him a hold guy in deep dynasty and keeper formats.

Spencer Howard has been recalled by the Phillies and has taken a spot in the starting rotation this time around. His first start was a bumpy three-inning affair, but he has posted a 33.3% CSW rate in 2021 thus far. One thing Howard has dealt with as a young starter is a notable velocity dip within games. While he can touch 96 mph with the fastball, especially early on, he usually settles in around 91 mph after a couple innings of work. Until he can prove that he’s got the stamina to pitch deep into games, his likeliest role is in the bullpen long term.

Nick Lodolo has been strong through four starts at Double-A, posting a 1.47 FIP. He should work his way up to Triple-A soon, and a late-season call-up is a definite possibility.

MacKenzie Gore continues to struggle mightily with his control at Triple-A. He doesn’t need to be stashed in any redraft format.

 

New Debuts

 

Cody Poteet – RHP – Miami Marlins

Man I did not see this one coming at all! The Marlins have some great young pitching depth, and I figured a number of guys would contribute ahead of Poteet. But the team’s 4th round selection in the 2015 draft has taken advantage of his opportunity, spinning three gems to start his MLB career, going 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA.

Poteet features a four-pitch mix that he can use to keep hitters from both sides of the plate off-balance. His four-seam fastball has averaged 93.7 mph, and has good spin and life up in the zone. Poteet locates the pitch well. His changeup plays very well off the four-seamer. It’s a straight-change with a great movement profile (12% more drop than the average MLB change), generating whiffs at a 37.9% rate so far. Then, he mixes in a slider with two-lane movement and a sweepy slower curveball to keep hitters off-balance. He commands everything well. He has a future as a MLB rotation arm.

 

Logan Gilbert – RHP – Seattle Mariners

The Mariners gave us a double-barreled prospect surprise by calling up future franchise cornerstones Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert on the same day. Gilbert has now made three starts for the Ms, and has struggled. He’s posted a 7.59 ERA, with MLB hitters really teeing off on his fastball in their first look at the kid.

Gilbert has projected as a starting pitcher throughout his pro career due to his repeatable delivery and four-pitch mix. However, his delivery, while repeatable, seems to be easy for MLB hitters to time up so far. And, despite flashing a good changeup in the past, Gilbert has yet to throw one at the MLB level. The fastball, in particular, has been a trouble spot. It hasn’t flashed as a pitch that will generate a lot of whiffs, and he’s been serving it up in the hart of the zone a ton. Just look at his heat map thus far:

Gilbert still has the prospect pedigree to make him a worthwhile hold in pretty much every format. But for those of us who dumped a bunch of FAAB to pick him up for his MLB debut, that’s not much consolation right now.

 

Alek Manoah – RHP – Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays called-up Alek Manoah to make his first career start against the Yankees tonight. Manoah, 23, was the team’s first round selection in the 2019 draft out of West Virginia University. Manoah has impressed at each placement during his non-traditional development period, including his time at the alternate site in 2020 and at MLB spring training in 2021.

Manoah’s primary weapon is a slider that might rate out as a double-plus pitch. It’s the type of pitch that will confound MLB hitters and provide Manoah with a security blanket that he can rely on while he figures things out at the big league level.

Manoah’s fastball should work at the MLB level. He can sit consistently in the 92-93 mph band with the pitch, and has the ability to reach back and touch 97 mph with it when needed. The slider tunnels well with the fastball, and the combination of looks should give hitters trouble. His changeup is a work in progress, but the team has said that they like the depth he’s been able to add to the pitch since draft day in 2019. Manoah is worth a stab in leagues where you are strained for starting pitching at the moment.