Plan of Attack: DFS Picks and Advice for 9/7

We’re sitting on a modest six-game slate tonight with the unusual start time of 6:05pm ET. Two of the games kickoff after 9:00pm so hopefully we’ll get to see lineups before contests begin. The pitching slate is deep. Case in point, the best stacking targets are Jordan Montgomery and Frankie Montas.

This is Plan of Attack. We’re here to provide advice and recommendations to help you build successful daily fantasy lineups. We’ll be loosely guided by the tenants of our DFS Manifesto – namely a single lineup build designed to improve your enjoyment of the game while giving you a chance to beat the rake.

For clarity, when I reference “value,” I’m referring to projected points divided by cost.

 

1. The RotoFanatical Challenge

We are hosting a daily 20-entry, $3 contest on DraftKings. It’s an excellent low-cost testing ground against fellow RotoFanatic fans. A level playing field is always nice. Today’s six-game slate begins at 6:05pm ET. Reserve your spot for the contest.

 

2. Weather and Park Factors

Rain up north – specifically in Cleveland and Buffalo – could play a role in tonight’s contest. The Indians game could be delayed. The current report suggests clearing by 7:00pm. These things tend to change though. The risk of rain peaks in Buffalo right around mid-game. It’s not especially likely (28% per one model).

The parks skew heavily towards pitcher friendly with Oracle Park and Oakland Coliseum the most aggressive examples. Sahlen Field is also thought to be a pitcher’s park while Petco Park, Progressive Field, and Nationals Park are roughly neutral. Remember Prog Rock Park is friendly to left-handed power.

Check out our park factors HERE.

 

3. Building Block Bats

Elite values:

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Plan of Attack: DFS Picks and Advice for 9/6

Sunday’s slate is a nine-game that begins very early. Pitching features some real aces like deGrom, Bieber, and Nola, with a farewell outing to Matt Harvey. Focus on the matchups and take advantage of weaker pitching.

This is Plan of Attack. We’re here to provide advice and recommendations to help you build successful daily fantasy lineups. We’ll be loosely guided by the tenants of our DFS Manifesto – namely, a single lineup build designed to improve your enjoyment of the game while giving you a chance to beat the rake.

For clarity, when I reference “value,” I’m referring to projected points divided by cost.

 

1. The RotoFanatical Challenge

We are hosting a daily 20-entry, $3 contest on DraftKings. It’s an excellent low-cost testing ground against fellow RotoFanatic fans. A level playing field is always lovely. Today’s 9-game slate begins at 12:05pm ET. Reserve your spot for the contest.

 

 

2. Weather and Park Factors

There is rain sprinkling in a few areas, but nothing that should stop a baseball game today. Heavy winds are blowing in Wrigley again, nearly 20.6 MPH. To the opposite effect, 20.1 MPH winds are blowing out at Kaufman Stadium. As always, monitor your lineups before lock time.

Hitters Parks to consider: Minute Maid(LAA@HOU), Camden Yards(NYY@BAL), Wrigley Field(STL@CHC)

Pitchers Parks to consider: Oakland Coliseum(SD@OAK), Kaufman Stadium(CWS@KC)

Check out our park factors HERE.

 

 

3. Building Block Bats

 Stack 1: Chicago White Sox @ Matt Harvey

Jose Abreu ($5200 DK, $3800 FD)
Tim Anderson ($5600 DK, $3700 FD)
Eloy Jimenez ($4700 DK, $3400 FD)

The Chicago White Sox draw the Matt Harvey, who has been a disaster on the bump. All systems go on this stack today. Harvey has not made it past the third inning and continues to get crushed by hitters. As noted in the Park Factors section, the wind is howling out in Kaufman. The White Sox are a dynamic bunch of hitters that produce massive fantasy points a night in and night out. This will be a chalkier play, but will produce!

 

Stack 2: Cincinnati Reds @ Chad Kuhl

Joey Votto ($41000 DK, $2800 FD)
Jesse Winker ($4200 DK, $2900 FD)
Mike Moustakas ($4900 DK, $2700 FD)

The Reds are a cheaper stack to play against Chad Kuhl. Specifically, targeting the left-handed hitters will help receive the most bang for your buck. The three Reds are high on-base machines with a fair amount of pop. Mix and match with a few big arms and viola, you’ve got a very potent build.

Also consider: Toronto Blue Jays

 

Unlikely heroes:

Victor Reyes ($3400 DK, $2400 FD)

Reyes has been an unlikely hero on several occasions and still doesn’t get the respect deserved. On the season, he is hitting over .300 with four HRs, and five SB. Detroit has firmly planted him in the leadoff position, even though he is not a typical leadoff hitter because he doesn’t walk. Reyes is swinging a hot bat with a six-game hitting streak and a home run last night. He faces off against southpaw Rich Hill, who has struggled with command and walking an unusual amount.

Also consider: Joey Votto, Rowdy Tellez

 

 

4. Pitchers

“Safe” Picks: 

Shane Bieber (DK $11000, FD $10800)

Bieber is the top-priced arm on the slate-and rightfully so. He has tossed a quality start in every outing this year. On the season, Bieber boasts 84 strikeouts in only 52.2 innings pitched with a 1.20 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. Nearly every time on the mound, Bieber is baffling hitters and striking out double-digit batters. He draws one of the more favorable matchups, the Milwaukee Brewers, who have struggled against right-handed pitching. They are a 27.2% strikeout rate on the year and sub .700 OPS. A must play in all cash games.

 

Jacob deGrom (DK $10500, FD $11500) 

The next pricey arm is Jacob deGrom, and like Bieber, is a maven on the mound. He dropped his ERA down to 1.76 with a 0.90 WHIP and 58 strikeouts in 41 innings pitched. deGrom gets zero run support from the Mets, and thus his record stays at 2-1. He is riding a three-game quality start streak that has a 30:4 K/BB ratio. He draws a less favorable matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies. On the year, the Phillies are an average team vs. RHP with a 104 wRC+ and a 10% walk rate. deGrom should still dominate with nearly double-digit strikeouts and six-plus innings.

Also Consider: Aaron Nola

 

Value Targets: 

Tyler Glasnow (DK $8700, FD $10100)

Glasnow is a value play in DraftKings, over FanDuel due to salary difference. If you want elite level production, but save close to $1300 in the budget, Glasnow is your pick. The season started out with disaster, and he kept giving up the longball. The strikeouts were always there, but he was unable to make it past the fourth inning until mid-August. The excellent news, Glasnow has righted the ship and piling up the strikeouts while going deeper into games. In his last 13 innings pitched, he has only given up seven hits while maintaining a 20:2 K/BB ratio and notching two quality starts.

Also Consider: Masahiro Takana, Tejay Antone

 

 

5. Connectors

Connectors are cheap guys who offer a tangible upside and enable you to explore top-heavy builds. FanDuel offers an embarrassing quantity of these players (their pricing model is drunk), so I’ll focus on DraftKings first and foremost.

 

Randy Arozarena ($2700 DK, $2300 FD)  

Arozarena is a top prospect of the Rays that boasts a ton of speed. He has found success early on the season with a hit in each of his games starts and went deep on September 2nd. In the minor leagues last year, he slashed .358/.435/.593 with a 1.028 OPS with 12 HR and nine stolen bases. He can do it all, just needs to crack the lineup.

Also Consider: Erik Gonzalez

Plan of Attack: DFS Picks and Advice for 9/5

After a monster day of Friday baseball, we return to a more normal slate. The trickier part of today is selecting the correct pitchers to start. Plenty of great hitting matchups available as well!

This is Plan of Attack. We’re here to provide advice and recommendations to help you build successful daily fantasy lineups. We’ll be loosely guided by the tenants of our DFS Manifesto – namely, a single lineup build designed to improve your enjoyment of the game while giving you a chance to beat the rake.

For clarity, when I reference “value,” I’m referring to projected points divided by cost.

 

1. The RotoFanatical Challenge

We are hosting a daily 20-entry, $3 contest on DraftKings. It’s an excellent low-cost testing ground against fellow RotoFanatic fans. A level playing field is always lovely. Today’s 12-game slate begins at 6:05pm ET. Reserve your spot for the contest.

 

 

2. Weather and Park Factors

The weather looks like it won’t play a factor in today’s slate. A 10% chance of rain is listed for the MIA@TB game, but the roof will be closed anyway. There are two games with an enhanced wind presence; STL@CHC has strong winds blowing in on Wrigley-so watch for it to be a pitcher’s duel. MIL@CLE is also showing strong winds blowing to RF/1B that could make things interesting.

Hitters Parks to consider: Minute Maid(LAA@HOU), Camden Yards(NYY@BAL), Wrigley Field(STL@CHC)

Pitchers Parks to consider: Oakland Coliseum(SD@OAK), Kaufman Stadium(CWS@KC)

Check out our park factors HERE.

 

 

3. Building Block Bats

Elite values:

Josh Donaldson ($3700 DK, $2800 FD)

Donaldson feels like a forgotten man. He is back handling the hot corner for the Twins and swinging a hot bat since returning. In his first two games back, Donaldson has an extra-base hit in both, including a home run. He sat out the second doubleheader last night so he could be full go tonight to face Tarik Skubal. It’s a minimal sample size, but Skubal is getting crushed against RHH.

freesnippingtool.com_capture_20200905063400

The price is far too low for an elite level talent like Donaldson.

 

Jose Abreu ($5400 DK, $3800 FD)
Tim Anderson ($5600 DK, $3600 FD)

Jose Abreu and Tim Anderson are a significant reason for the White Sox being in first place in the Central. Quietly, Tim Anderson is competing for the batting title again. Anderson is riding another heater this week with a .400/.424/.567 slash line with a .991 OPS. His teammate, Jose Abreu, is putting up huge power numbers. He tied for second in the MLB with 13 home runs and atop the leaderboard in RBI(38). These two definitely come with a heft price tag, but the production is elite.

Also consider: Teoscar Hernandez/Randall Grichuk, Kyle Tucker, Marcel Ozuna, Michael Conforto/Dominic Smith

 

Unlikely heroes:

Jacob Stallings ($3100 DK, $2200 FD)

A comfortable position to punt on is catcher due to the position scarcity. When I’m not paying up for JT Realmuto or Yasmani Grandal, a target to look for is Jacob Stallings. He is providing a safe floor at the position with a 12.4% walk rate. Another reason to target Stallings is he makes a lot of contact-89.9% z-contact puts him in the top-10 of all catchers seeing at least 30 plate appearances. Lastly, Stallings typically bats in the 5/6-hole and gets a few more chances to drive in a run than other catchers at a similar salary.

 

Tyler Naquin ($3400 DK, $3000 FD)

Naquin is a platoon bat that needs to be considered when Cleveland faces a right-handed pitcher. In the last two weeks, he has a .316/.325/.737 slash line with a 1.062 OPS and four home runs. The numbers are pretty loud for such a quiet player.

freesnippingtool.com_capture_20200905065925

Also consider: Brian Goodwin, Sam Haggerty, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce

 

 

4. Pitchers

“Safe” Picks: 

Lucas Giolito (DK $10500, FD $10400)

Lucas Giolitto followed up his no-hit performance with a solid outing against the Twins. He continues to pile up the strikeouts with 66 in only 48.2 innings pitched. He looks like the safest high-priced player because of the matchup. Giolito squares off against one of the worst offenses on the slate, the Kansas City Royals. In the last seven days, the Royals are striking out 25.3% of the time and have a 69 wRC+. Put those numbers in with the .614 OPS and .292 OBP, this should be a high scoring game for Giolito.

 

Aaron Civale (DK $9400, FD $9100) 

Civale has struggled in his previous two games on the mound. Although his control has been there and he still is yet to walk more than two batters in a start. Civale has been a mark of consistency as he has made it at least six innings pitched in every start this year. He makes his eighth start against a struggling Milwaukee Brewer’s club, who has a 75 wRC+ and .287 wOBA vs. RHP. In the last seven days, the Brew Crew is striking out an alarming 26.1% of the time and has a sub .800 OPS.

Also Consider: Gerrit Cole, Max Fried

 

Value Targets: 

Justus Sheffield (DK $5700, FD $6300)

Sheffield gets to pitch against the Texas Rangers today, who is a dreadful offensive squad. They have a 25.0% strikeout rate and a 5.9% walk rate when facing a southpaw on the season. In over 450 plate appearances, the Rangers have a .223/.280/.361 slash line vs. LHP. Yikes! Sheffield’s last outing didn’t go according to plan due to the number of walks. If he can keep those under wraps, the rest should take care of itself.

Also Consider: Chase Anderson

 

5. Connectors

Connectors are cheap guys who offer a tangible upside and enable you to explore top-heavy builds. FanDuel offers an embarrassing quantity of these players (their pricing model is drunk), so I’ll focus on DraftKings first and foremost.

 

Edwin Rios ($2900 DK, $2200 FD)

Rios was activated when Justin Turner went on the IL. This one is a little bit of a dart throw because the Dodgers have been sporadic with playing time on players- so monitor the lineup before lock time. Rios destroyed right-handed pitchers in the minor leagues, as shown in the splits below.

freesnippingtool.com_capture_20200905071423

Rios should face off against German Marquez, and his rostered% could be deficient. This would also be a great GPP/Tourny play because of that.

 

Cedric Mullins ($2000 DK, $2400 FD)

Mullins draws the very tough matchup against Gerrit Cole, but will likely get the leadoff at-bats. Cole has looked human at times, and Mullins is swinging a hot bat with a hit in each of his previous four games. It won’t take much production to pay for his low salary, and the opportunities should be there today.

Also Consider: Jose Trevino(catcher punt), Daniel Robertson, Andres Gimenez

Plan of Attack: DFS Picks and Advice for 9/4

There are 20 games today. Twenty! Ten of them are doubleheaders and thus unavailable for DFS purposes. The Marlins and Rays start half an hour early so they’re out too. We’re left with nine-games in the main slate.

This is Plan of Attack. We’re here to provide advice and recommendations to help you build successful daily fantasy lineups. We’ll be loosely guided by the tenants of our DFS Manifesto – namely a single lineup build designed to improve your enjoyment of the game while giving you a chance to beat the rake.

For clarity, when I reference “value,” I’m referring to projected points divided by cost.

 

1. The RotoFanatical Challenge

We are hosting a daily 20-entry, $3 contest on DraftKings. It’s an excellent low-cost testing ground against fellow RotoFanatic fans. A level playing field is always nice. Today’s nine-game slate begins at 7:10pm ET. Reserve your spot for the contest.

 

2. Weather and Park Factors

There is nothing to report on the weather front – no rain in the forecast and temperate temperatures. As of this morning, Wrigley Field has a 12-mph wind blowing from left to right. If that shift a little, it could become a big boost to left-handed power. Presently, the looks to wreak more havoc on balls in play.

Oracle Park, Oakland Coliseum, Kauffman Stadium, T-Mobile Park, Angel Stadium, and Dodger Stadium rate as some flavor of pitcher friendly. The two L.A. venues increase home runs but otherwise limit run production. That leaves us just CitiField – a roughly neutral park – and Progressive Field. You may recall from past episodes that the Indians home park is very friendly to left-handed power but suppresses righties.

Check out our park factors HERE.

 

3. Building Block Bats

Elite values:

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Plan of Attack: DFS Picks and Advice for 9/3

Today’s six-game main slate kicks off at 4:05pm ET on DraftKings. FanDuel is instead running a three-game main at the normal weekday start time. They can never do the same thing. They’re obviously colluding.

This is Plan of Attack. We’re here to provide advice and recommendations to help you build successful daily fantasy lineups. We’ll be loosely guided by the tenants of our DFS Manifesto – namely a single lineup build designed to improve your enjoyment of the game while giving you a chance to beat the rake.

Don’t be surprised if the column evolves. This is a living creature, and it’s sure to adapt in Darwinian fashion. If there are features you especially like or believe need tweaking to be actionable, please reach out to us. Since this is written early in the day, certain important details will be left for you to find on your own. In particular, weather, lineups, and umpires are all things you should verify within three hours of contest-lock.

For clarity, when I reference “value,” I’m referring to projected points divided by cost.

 

1. The RotoFanatical Challenge

We are hosting a daily 20-entry, $3 contest on DraftKings. It’s an excellent low-cost testing ground against fellow RotoFanatic fans. A level playing field is always nice. Today’s six-game slate begins at 4:05pm ET. Reserve your spot for the contest.

 

2. Weather and Park Factors

Possible rain in Philadelphia looks like it will hold off until after the game is complete. Weather conditions are neutral for home runs around the league. Citizen’s Bank Park is the most power friendly stadium. Citi Field, Angel Stadium, Fenway, and Dodger Stadium all have unique features but play as roughly neutral venues. The lone pitcher’s park on tap is Kauffman Stadium.

Check out our park factors HERE.

 

3. Building Block Bats

Elite values:

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Plan of Attack: DFS Picks and Advice for 9/2

We have a 10 game slate tonight populated by… problematic… pitchers. Let’s dig in.

This is Plan of Attack. We’re here to provide advice and recommendations to help you build successful daily fantasy lineups. We’ll be loosely guided by the tenants of our DFS Manifesto – namely a single lineup build designed to improve your enjoyment of the game while giving you a chance to beat the rake.

Don’t be surprised if the column evolves. This is a living creature, and it’s sure to adapt in Darwinian fashion. If there are features you especially like or believe need tweaking to be actionable, please reach out to us. Since this is written early in the day, certain important details will be left for you to find on your own. In particular, weather, lineups, and umpires are all things you should verify within three hours of contest-lock.

For clarity, when I reference “value,” I’m referring to projected points divided by cost.

 

1. The RotoFanatical Challenge

We are hosting a daily 20-entry, $3 contest on DraftKings. It’s an excellent low-cost testing ground against fellow RotoFanatic fans. A level playing field is always nice. Today’s 10-game slate begins at 7:05pm ET. Reserve your spot for the contest.

 

2. Weather and Park Factors

Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Boston have a non-zero risk of rain. Other east coast venues could also experience pop-up storms. You’ll need to monitor weather closer to contest lock. Coors Field is off the docket, but we still have a fun mix of hitting and pitching parks. On the bats side, Yankee Stadium, Citizen’s Bank Park, Miller Park, and Minute Maid Park are the best for home runs. PNC Park and Kauffman Stadium will buff associated pitchers.

Check out our park factors HERE.

 

3. Building Block Bats

Elite values:

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